Besent said they may impose or lift more sanctions on Russian crude oil, releasing "stranded offshore crude" to lower oil prices.

``` U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has sent further signals of relaxing sanctions on Russian crude oil, bringing new downward pressure to the global oil market. Analysts believe that currently, sanctioned crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela has accumulated at sea to a scale of 375 million barrels. Once sanctions are lifted and this batch of crude re-enters onshore pricing centers, oil prices will face a substantial impact. On March 6, according to Reuters, Yellen said in an interview with Fox Business, "We may lift sanctions on more Russian crude." She pointed out, "There are hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned crude at sea. Essentially, by lifting sanctions, the Treasury can create supply—we are looking into this." This statement came the day after Washington issued a 30-day waiver order, which allows Russian crude currently stranded at sea to continue being sold to India. According to Global Times, on March 5, Yellen announced, "To ensure a continuous flow of crude into the global market," the U.S. Treasury will issue a 30-day temporary waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude. Goldman Sachs' commodities research team previously provided a quantitative framework for this policy signal. Goldman Sachs pointed out that for every 100 million barrel reduction in offshore crude inventories—that is, additional sanctioned crude arriving onshore—Brent crude prices would drop by $3 to $4. This means, if the "hundreds of millions" of sanctioned crude Yellen referred to are released into the market, the downward pressure on oil prices will be considerable. 375 million barrels of crude "trapped at sea" have become an invisible support for oil prices Goldman Sachs' research report pointed out that although there is an estimated global crude oversupply of about 1.5 million barrels per day, Brent prices have not seen sustained declines this year. The core reason is that this surplus has not actually entered onshore pricing centers. The report shows that sanctioned offshore crude stocks from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela have increased by about 130 million barrels year-on-year, now totaling 375 million barrels, which accounts for one-third of the annual growth in global visible crude inventories. Meanwhile, onshore commercial inventories in OECD countries have remained largely stable. Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven, Filippo Cuscito, Alexandra Paulus, and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in the report: "When inventory accumulation occurs at sea rather than on OECD land, its impact on oil prices is heavily discounted by the market—the reason being, the spot-oriented oil market tends to significantly discount expectations of future crude arriving onshore, especially when geopolitical factors may cause sanctioned crude to be stranded at sea for years." Goldman's quantitative price impact of sanctions relief: Each 100 million barrels released into the market depresses prices by $3 to $4 The Goldman Sachs report provides two empirical rules for assessing the impact of sanction changes on oil prices, offering a fairly clear pricing reference for the market. - First, with the global level of oversupply unchanged, if 1 million barrels per day of sanctioned crude remains stranded at sea for 12 months (compared to a counterfactual scenario where all this crude arrives onshore), Brent prices will receive up to $8 per barrel of support. - Second, conversely, for every 100 million barrel reduction in offshore crude inventories—that is, extra sanctioned crude flowing into the onshore market—Brent prices will fall by $3 to $4. This framework means that if the "hundreds of millions of barrels" of sanctioned Russian crude Yellen mentioned are released and gradually land, the cumulative downward pressure on oil prices could amount to more than $10 per barrel, with the exact extent depending on the scale and pace of the releases. Complex signals on the demand side, sanction relief path still uncertain Although Yellen's position is clear, whether sanctioned crude can enter the market smoothly still depends on multiple demand-side variables. Goldman Sachs' report notes that some industry experts expect India’s purchase of Russian crude to fall further from the current 1.3 million barrels per day to 700,000–900,000 barrels, as India is actively diversifying its energy sources toward the U.S. and the Middle East. India's Trade Minister Goyal said in mid-February that buying crude oil or LNG from the United States "serves India’s own strategic interests." Goldman also noted that if Russia-Ukraine negotiations fail to reach an agreement, Asian buyers may face increasing pressure to reduce purchases of Russian crude. In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs assumes that by 2026, the proportion of offshore crude inventories in global inventory growth will fall from 47% in 2025 to 21%. However, both sanction relief or progress in geopolitical negotiations may cause this ratio to deviate significantly from expectations, posing two-way risks for oil prices. Risk Notice and Disclaimer The market has its risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of particular users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suited to their specific circumstances. Investment based on this information is at your own risk. ```