Bessant gives a "forward-looking guidance": The US economy will "accelerate significantly" in the fourth quarter, and manufacturing "cannot build factories with a snap of the fingers."

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent has recently predicted that the U.S. economy will see "significant acceleration" in the fourth quarter. This optimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to the current weak employment performance. Besent also forecast that jobs in manufacturing and construction will improve as corporate capital expenditure increases, but acknowledged that the recovery will take time.

On September 7, according to media reports, Besent emphasized in an interview on NBC’s "Meet the Press," "President Trump was elected because of change, and we will advance economic policies to get the economy back on track. I believe we will see significant acceleration by the fourth quarter."

Besent’s statement comes as the White House faces criticism over the latest non-farm payrolls data showing a sharp slowdown in job growth. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on September 5 showed only 22,000 new jobs were added in August and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, marking the fourth consecutive month of disappointing jobs data.

In response to warnings from economists at firms like Moody’s Analytics about slowing hiring trends and manufacturing job losses, Besent argued that recent data contains noise and may be subject to revisions, noting that August is the "noisiest month" for employment data. He also criticized the Federal Reserve’s policies as overly lagging. Besent further predicted that the annual revision to the non-farm payroll data due out on September 9 could erase as many as 800,000 jobs reported during the Biden administration.

Regarding manufacturing employment, Besent admitted the U.S. has lost 42,000 manufacturing jobs since the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff policies in April. In the face of doubts over declining manufacturing jobs, Besent defended government policies, stating that manufacturing recovery takes time, emphasizing "You can't just snap your fingers and build a factory overnight."

Treasury Secretary Questions Data Reliability and Criticizes Federal Reserve Policy Lag

Confronted with weak jobs data, Besent chose to question the accuracy of the data itself. In his interview with NBC, he stated:

"Let’s look at the validity of this number. August is the noisiest month of the year and usually has the largest revisions. This is why we need good data."

Besent also turned his criticism toward the Federal Reserve, echoing Trump’s previous rebuke of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He stated:

"If these numbers are indeed accurate, it shows that President Trump’s view of the Fed is correct. They have been too slow to react. Because of poor data, they probably should have started cutting rates in June."

With the imminent release of the annual non-farm payroll revision, Besent implied the scale of the revision could be enormous:

"The revision we are getting next week could be as much as a downward revision of 800,000 jobs. I’m not sure what those data collectors have been doing, but we need good data."

Manufacturing Recovery Requires Patience, Record Investment Intentions

In response to concerns over manufacturing job losses, Besent emphasized the time frame for policy effect. "It’s only been a few months. In manufacturing, as you know, we can’t just snap our fingers and have a factory built." he said.

Besent pointed out that companies are currently showing a "record scale of investment intentions," and these firms are planning to build production facilities in the U.S. He expects this will first bring construction jobs, followed by manufacturing jobs.

The Treasury Secretary revealed that the Treasury receives about two management teams every day, and "the vast majority of companies tell us they plan to increase capital investment and employment. We are seeing record amounts, and there will be a record number of foreign direct investments."

He acknowledged that companies such as John Deere have faced difficulties due to tariff policies but stressed, "For every John Deere, we have a company tell us 'tariffs have helped our business. We are increasing capital expenditures and we are adding jobs.'"

In the interview, the NBC host cited companies including John Deere, Nike, Black & Decker, and the three major automakers warning investors that tariffs are adding hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in unexpected expenses. Goldman Sachs estimates that 86% of tariff costs are ultimately borne by American companies and consumers, but Besent completely rejected these conclusions.

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