Betting on a Tesla and SpaceX merger? "Wood Sister"'s space ETF buys Tesla for the first time

Betting on a Tesla and SpaceX merger? "Wood Sister"'s space ETF buys Tesla for the first time

The well-known investor Cathie Wood’s space exploration-themed ETF has initiated a position in Tesla for the first time, sparking speculation in the market that she may be betting on major restructuring within Elon Musk’s commercial empire.

According to Benzinga, the Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) bought 35,766 shares of Tesla stock last Wednesday, February 4th. Prior to this transaction, the fund held no Tesla shares. As of Thursday, this position accounts for 1.99% of the ETF’s total assets.

Although Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has long held sizable positions in Tesla through other innovation-focused funds, this is the first time Tesla has been included in the space and defense-themed portfolio. This portfolio adjustment comes at a sensitive moment: recent reports suggest SpaceX and xAI have completed their merger, and market speculation about Musk potentially seeking further integration of this combined entity with Tesla is heating up.

This rare buy not only draws investor attention to the lack of public channels for investing in SpaceX, but also gives rise to associations with potential capital maneuvers. If Tesla were to merge with the SpaceX/xAI entity, the process would involve complex regulatory review and shareholder approval, so Ark Invest’s move may be an attempt to secure an early position.

Positioning Logic: Betting on a Merger or Robotics Strategy?

There are two main market interpretations of ARKX’s motivation for the new position. First, Ark Invest may be building a stake in anticipation of a potential shareholder vote on whether Tesla should merge with SpaceX/xAI in the future. Some observers see this purchase as a direct bet on Musk’s business empire consolidation.

Secondly, this investment decision may be based on fundamental logic. The ETF has listed “adaptive robotics” as one of its core investment themes. Considering Tesla’s active development of the Optimus robot and commitment to using robotics to help build a “planetary civilization”, this aligns well with the macro vision of a space exploration fund. Therefore, even as an electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla’s potential in robotics provides a rational basis for its inclusion in the space ETF.

This purchase further consolidates Ark Invest’s reputation as a staunch supporter of Musk-related companies. Tesla holds a core position in several of Ark Invest’s other ETFs. Specifically, Tesla is the largest holding in Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), Ark Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), and Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ), with respective portfolio weights of about 10.99%, 10.39%, and 9.93%.

Additionally, the Ark Venture Fund, which invests in both private and public companies, holds shares in Musk-affiliated companies. As of January 31, SpaceX is the fund’s largest holding at 11.23%; xAI ranks second at 6.31%; Tesla is the thirtieth-largest holding at 1.05%. These figures do not yet reflect the latest changes following the merger of SpaceX and xAI.

Market View: Rising Expectations for Integration

Wall Street analysts remain highly attentive to the possibility of Musk integrating his commercial empire. Investor Chamath Palihapitiya once publicly stated that he believes Musk will eventually complete a “reverse merger”, bringing SpaceX into Tesla, calling this his “contrarian prediction” for 2026.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently pointed out that the “opportunity is increasing” for Tesla to attempt a merger with the newly formed SpaceX/xAI entity. Ives believes this expanding AI ecosystem will focus on both “space and earth”, and Musk not only has the motivation to consolidate these strengths, but the logic of such an integration is also sound. However, any such merger would require not only Tesla shareholder approval but also the strict scrutiny of regulatory agencies.

SpaceX’s Capital Path and Investment Scarcity

Currently, SpaceX remains one of the world’s largest private companies, with extremely limited channels available to ordinary investors. Aside from Ark Invest’s funds, investors mainly obtain indirect exposure to SpaceX through holding stocks in public companies such as Bank of America, Alphabet, and EchoStar.

As for SpaceX’s listing prospects, Musk has previously hinted at IPO plans, but no formal filings have been submitted yet. Market speculation suggests that a potential IPO could happen as soon as June 2026. Against this backdrop, Ark Invest’s direct purchase of Tesla through its space ETF, whether based on confidence in robotics technology or expectations of a future merger, provides new signals for investors seeking exposure to related assets.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets involve risk; investment decisions should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it account for the unique investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investments made based on this information are at your own risk.