Beware of the "ceasefire rebound" trap! Strategist: Iran is unlikely to accept the agreement, recommends "selling on rallies"!

Rumors of U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations boosted risk assets, but analysts warn: The likelihood of Iran accepting the agreement is questionable, and even if a deal is reached, the damaged fundamentals of the global economy will limit any rebound.

According to earlier reports from CCTV News, the United States has proposed a ceasefire plan to Iran containing 15 points, claiming that Tehran has made concessions on some key terms. After the news was released, Brent crude futures fell from Tuesday's peak of $105/barrel to below $100, while U.S. stock and bond futures rebounded simultaneously.

However, market optimism may be premature.

Peter Tchir of Academy Securities believes: Iran lacks sufficient motivation to accept a ceasefire, and the real damage to the global economy—including rising recession risks in Asia and Europe, and possible deterioration in employment and private credit—will not disappear because of a ceasefire agreement. His conclusion: one should "short the rally" this time.

Ceasefire framework: Trump characterizes negotiations as "regime change"

The political backdrop of this ceasefire proposal is worth noting. In his latest statement, Trump for the first time explicitly advocated that so many senior Iranian leaders have been killed that Iran has already undergone "regime change"—regardless of who the negotiation counterpart really is.

Tchir points out that this statement has strategic significance. In his view, Trump always frames every result as a "victory"—from "tariff days" to Greenland, without exception. This ceasefire proposal can similarly be interpreted as a "trial balloon": if domestic opinion recognizes this as a victory, the government can advance and move on. The direction of public sentiment over the coming days will largely determine Washington's next steps.

This logic is mirrored in markets by the so-called "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) vs. "TAW" (Trump Always Wins) debate. Tchir believes that understanding the switching between these narratives is key to judging the trajectory of current geopolitical risk premium.

Still 2 to 4 weeks from "reopening the Strait of Hormuz"

On the military front, several members of Academy Securities' geopolitical intelligence group (GIG) agree: it will take about 2 to 4 more weeks before U.S. forces can reasonably re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

GIG compares the current phase of conflict to the final stage of a "scripted play" in football—both sides are advancing according to pre-set target lists, with the U.S. holding operational advantage. The U.S. military has achieved "Air Supremacy" (above usual Air Superiority), and this dominance will not fade in the next 30 days.

The main constraint is troop deployment time. Marines from Japan are en route, the amphibious assault ship "Boxer" has shifted course to the region, and more airborne troops and vessels are gathering. It will still take time for these forces to arrive and reach full combat readiness.

What does a ceasefire mean for Iran?

Strategic value for the U.S. is relatively clear: use the 30-day window for resupply, strengthening deployments, and let global markets stock up energy reserves, weakening Iran’s economic leverage.

However, whether Iran will accept is far less straightforward. Tchir lays out Iran's core dilemmas from a "red team simulation" angle:

First, Iran suffered two surprise raids during "negotiations," giving Tehran ample reason to doubt the credibility of any ceasefire agreement;

Second, after 30 days, the U.S. military will be stronger, global energy reserves fuller, and Iran's economic deterrence further weakened;

Third, if IRGC core members lose power, they will face severe personal consequences, making them lack compromise motivation;

Fourth, Iran may judge that continued disruption of global trade will eventually force the U.S. to offer better terms.

Notably, Iran recently launched missiles with ranges exceeding previously acknowledged levels, showing it still holds some strategic reserves.

Market impact: Limited rebound, unresolved fundamental concerns

Even if the ceasefire agreement is finalized, Tchir believes the upward space for a market rebound is quite limited.

The rationale is that geopolitical conflict has already caused real damage to the global economy: high energy prices erode consumer and corporate purchasing power, recession risks in Asia and Europe continue climbing, and the U.S. is not shielded—an American homebuilder CEO has listed Mideast conflict as a headwind for home sales.

Meanwhile, structural issues like labor market stress and private credit risk, which existed before, are quietly worsening rather than improving as Iran's situation dominates headlines.

Tchir’s conclusion: this rally, driven by ceasefire news, is more suitable as a window to reduce positions or short, not a signal to buy. The Strait of Hormuz prediction market’s reaction to the ceasefire proposal has been almost unchanged, possibly quietly conveying the same assessment.

Risk Warning & DisclaimerThe market carries risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment goals, financial situations, or needs of particular users. Users should consider whether any opinions or views expressed here suit their particular circumstances. Investments based on this article are at your own risk.