Bitcoin serves as a "barometer" of geopolitics; could risk appetite return when markets open on Monday?
```
Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal after the sharp escalation of Middle Eastern tensions is being interpreted by some market participants as a positive signal for the opening of global risk assets on Monday.
Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir stated in a report that, as the only tradable risk asset over the weekend, Bitcoin has always been a barometer for market sentiment. Its rebound indicates that risk appetite is being restored. Meanwhile, oil prices have already priced in some geopolitical risks, providing further support for risk-oriented market opening on Monday.
As the US-Iran situation evolved, Bitcoin made a reversal from a "sharp decline" to a "sharp rise". After news of Israeli airstrikes on Iran emerged, digital assets plummeted, but as Iranian official media confirmed the assassination of Khamenei, the market quickly reversed and rallied. Not only did Bitcoin recover its losses, but it also rose above pre-conflict levels.
According to CCTV News, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked and killed on the morning of February 28. The Israeli side claims that Khamenei and his senior aides, including Secretary of the Iranian Defense Committee Ali Shamkhani and IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour, all died in the airstrike.
The report states that he is optimistic about the market opening in "risk appetite" mode on Monday. He points out that oil prices have risen from about $60/barrel at the end of last year to $72/barrel last Friday, and some conflict risk premium has already been priced in by the market. Besides, after Iran's leadership was severely affected, its strategic logic is broken—"now it's time to seek a dignified ending".
Bitcoin's "Barometer" Role
The report notes that This is now the third time in recent years that Bitcoin has acted as a real-time barometer of market sentiment during a major weekend Middle Eastern conflict. Each time, the initial reaction was a sharp drop, but this time, the rebound was markedly different.
On April 13, 2024, Iran launched a large number of suicide drones at Israel, and this conflict also occurred during the early hours of Saturday when global markets were closed. Bitcoin's initial reaction then was a sharp decline.
On June 21-22, 2025, "Operation Midnight Hammer" used B-2 bombers to destroy three nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—with giant bunker-busters. Again, the timing was Saturday morning, and Bitcoin saw another knee-jerk drop.
The key difference of this conflict compared to the previous two: Bitcoin achieved a significant rebound after its sharp fall, and ended up quoted above pre-event levels. In the report, this trend is interpreted as a "risk appetite" signal.
Oil Prices Have Priced in Some Conflict Risk
The energy market is a core variable for measuring the macroeconomic impact of this conflict. Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir outlined multiple logics for oil prices in the report:
First, risks have been partly priced in. Brent crude oil has risen from around $60/barrel at the end of last year to $72/barrel last Friday. This increase includes US winter energy demand and a certain level of conflict risk premium. Thus, "bad news" on oil prices is already to a large extent expected after Monday's opening.
Second, supply routes remain unimpeded. Tchir notes there is currently no sign that the Strait of Hormuz or any other key oil shipping route is blocked. He says: As long as de-escalation opportunities exist and routes remain open, this is the reason oil prices won't spiral out of control.
Finally, buffer inventories provide a cushion. Major global consumer countries have abundant crude oil reserves, and US inventory is high as well. Therefore, near-term supply disturbances—about one week—are expected to have limited impact. Based on this, Tchir anticipates spot contracts may rise to $80, but does not expect large volatility on the forward curve.
Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks. Investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the unique investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article apply to their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```