BlackRock CEO: If oil prices surge to $150, the global economy will fall into recession!

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Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, issued a warning: If oil prices climb to $150 per barrel, it will trigger a global economic recession.

On Tuesday, Fink told BBC in an exclusive interview that the direction of the Middle East conflict will determine two extreme outcomes for the global energy market. He believes that if tensions with Iran persist and oil prices remain high for a long time, this will have a “profound impact” on the global economy and could lead to a “severe and rapid recession.” BlackRock, a financial giant managing $14 trillion (about £10.5 trillion) in assets, offers important insights into the health of the global economy.

Meanwhile, Fink denied the existence of an AI bubble in the current market and refuted comparisons between today’s market environment and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. He also shared broad views on energy policy, AI development, and workforce transformation issues.

Oil Price Trends: Two Extreme Scenarios

Fink said it is still too early to judge the final scope and outcome of the Middle East conflict, but he believes the situation will move toward two sharply contrasting extremes.

In the optimistic scenario, if the conflict subsides and Iran is reaccepted by the international community, oil prices may fall below pre-war levels.

The pessimistic scenario is entirely the opposite. Fink warned that if Iran’s conflict continues, oil prices may stay in the "$100 or even near $150" range for years, which will have a “profound impact” on the economy, resulting in a “potentially severe and rapid recession.”

He also pointed out that rising energy prices are essentially a “regressive tax,” impacting poorer groups far more than the wealthy.

Energy Policy: Pragmatic and Diverse, Cheap Energy is Key

Facing pressure from rising energy prices, Fink called on countries to maintain a pragmatic attitude toward their energy mix, fully utilizing all available resources while actively transitioning to alternative energy sources.

"There’s no doubt we must make best use of existing resources, but at the same time we also need to actively move toward alternative energies," he said.

Fink pointed out that if oil prices stay at $150 for three to four years, this will drive many countries to accelerate their transition to solar and even wind energy. He emphasized that cheap energy is a core driver of economic growth and improved living standards, and nations should not rely on a single energy source.

Refuting the Theory of a Repeat Financial Crisis

Some analysts believe there are similarities between today’s market and the period just before the 2007–2008 financial crisis—surging energy prices and signs of cracks in the financial system. BlackRock itself is among several institutions restricting investors from withdrawing from private credit funds.

However, Fink is adamant in his denial. "I don’t see any similarity, not at all." He said today’s financial institutions are far more stable than back then, the affected funds are only a tiny portion of the overall market, and institutional investor demand remains strong.

Denies AI Bubble, Energy Costs Are the Biggest Bottleneck

In the field of artificial intelligence, Fink remains optimistic and firmly denies the existence of an AI investment bubble. "I absolutely do not believe there is a bubble," he said. "There may be one or two failures in AI, and I fully accept that."

Last year, BlackRock participated in a consortium and acquired Aligned Data Centres, one of the world’s largest data center operators, for $40 billion. Fink views AI as a competition for technological dominance and warned that without sufficient investment from the US and Europe, China will take the lead. "I believe building AI capacity is essential."

He pointed out that the biggest obstacle to US and EU AI expansion is energy costs. He criticized Europe for "all talk, no action" on energy and urged the US to ramp up solar investment to ensure cheap electricity for AI development.

AI and Employment: Reshaping the Workforce Structure

On the employment impact, Fink believes AI will create "a large number of jobs," mainly focusing on technical trades such as electricians, welders, and plumbers, though demand for some traditional office positions may decline.

He thus called for a reassessment of educational priorities. He noted that post–World War II, Americans set "going to college" as a standard, "We may have overdone it." He believes society needs to rebalance its focus on vocational education, granting technical trades equal respect with academic paths. "We need to be proud of these professions—a plumber or electrician can have an outstanding career as well."

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account any particular user’s special investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article is suitable for their specific circumstances. Investments made accordingly are at your own risk. ```