Blockade and sanctions apply double pressure: Iran's crude oil exports fall to a six-year low, with 67 million barrels stranded at sea.

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The U.S.-led maritime blockade is pushing Iran’s crude oil exports into a deadlock. Export volumes have plunged by over 90% in just two months, floating oil storage buffers have been rapidly depleted, and Iran’s energy exports are facing the most severe crisis in six years.

According to shipping data firm Vortexa, Iran’s crude and condensate exports in May were only 209,000 barrels per day, a sharp drop of about 84% from April’s 1.34 million barrels per day, and exports in March had been close to 1.9 million barrels per day. Independent estimates from analysis firm Kpler are slightly higher, about 260,000 barrels per day, but both indicate that Iran’s exports have fallen back to 2019-2020 levels.

This collapse directly impacts global crude supply expectations. Traders are increasingly concerned that if Iran’s export restrictions persist, combined with potential supply disruptions from other Middle Eastern oil producers, whether this can further push up oil prices. Meanwhile, the price of Iran’s light crude has shifted from a recent premium over Brent to a discount, for the first time in two months, with the market pricing system already reflecting this pressure.

Currently, about 67 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate are stranded in the Persian Gulf and Oman Bay, unable to reach terminal markets. Analysts warn that if current controls remain unchanged, the cargo available for export to China could run out in as little as two months, at which point the export crisis may evolve further into a production crisis.

Floating Storage Buffer Depleted, Inventory Drops Over 20%

At the onset of strengthened maritime controls in April, the market generally expected Iran to temporarily absorb the shock by relying on floating oil storage and resume shipments when export windows reopened. However, this buffer space is shrinking rapidly.

According to Kpler data, Iran’s floating crude inventory has dropped from about 190 million barrels at the end of April to roughly 147 million barrels, a decline of more than 20%, reflecting both reduced production and blocked flows of Iranian oil to China. The rapid depletion of inventory indicates that Tehran’s room to maneuver — maintaining production while absorbing blocked exports — has shrunk markedly.

With the number of outbound tankers from ports continuing to decline, analysts point out that if storage capacity continues to hit limits and buyer channels remain constrained, the export crisis will sooner or later transmit upstream, eventually turning into a forced reduction in production.

While some tankers are still being loaded, a large volume of Iranian crude is now stuck in a “goods but no market” dilemma. Kpler estimates that about 67 million barrels of crude and condensate are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf and Oman Bay, unable to be delivered.

Global Supply Concerns Intensify, Market Closely Watching Next Moves

Every barrel of Iranian crude that disappears from international markets leaves a gap in an already tightened global supply landscape due to Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

Energy traders are closely watching whether the prolonged Iranian export controls will resonate with disruptions in supply from other regions, amplifying upward pressure on oil prices. So far, the market reaction is evident in widening discounts for Iranian crude relative to benchmarks, as well as ongoing scrutiny of overall Middle Eastern export flows.

Analysts point out that if current constraints are not materially changed, the trajectory of this Iranian export crisis will deepen from “blocked exports” to “forced contraction of production,” with spillover effects on the global oil market becoming harder to ignore.

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