Both an analyst and an investor: This 29-year-old is gaining influence in AI.
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A young man with no semiconductor degree, who started out on the Reddit community, is becoming the most influential information hub in the global AI industry.
At Nvidia’s GTC Developer Conference this March, CEO Jensen Huang mentioned only two names in his entire speech on stage—one of them was Dylan Patel, 29, founder of SemiAnalysis. Huang not only referenced SemiAnalysis’s newly released chip benchmarking report InferenceX, but also put its logo on the big screen and spent five minutes explaining it.
A few days later, Patel released a report bearish on Nvidia’s Rubin chip.
This detail almost fully outlines Patel’s philosophy: He wants both influence and independence. As for where to draw the line, he decides for himself.
Image: Dylan Patel’s social platform avatar
From 20 Million to 100 Million: A Business of Selling "Cognition"
SemiAnalysis is the most-subscribed tech newsletter on the Substack platform, with over 250,000 subscribers. Most people subscribe for free, but a small number pay $500 per year to access all content.
But subscription revenue is just a fraction.
SemiAnalysis expects total revenue this year to exceed $100 million, up from $20 million a year ago. The real money comes from selling in-depth research reports and data to tech startups, investment firms, and internal teams at major tech companies such as Nvidia—these clients use them to guide AI spending and investment decisions.
Their research covers long-term topics like GPUs and data centers, extending to more timely analyses such as supply chain risks. For example, how a shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect helium exports and thus impact chip supply.
The essence of this business model is turning "knowing earlier than everyone else" into a business that can be priced.
CNBC host Jim Cramer described SemiAnalysis on his show: "There’s a company I treat as the Bible... I think SemiAnalysis are the arbiters, they are like gods."
Named by Jensen Huang, Personally Met by AMD's Lisa Su
Patel's influence is most directly reflected in the reactions from industry leaders.
Last year, he received an invitation to tour Supermicro’s factory, led personally by CEO Charles Liang. Earlier he had published an article criticizing AMD’s MI300X chip, and within a day, AMD CEO Lisa Su scheduled a 90-minute one-on-one meeting, which both parties later publicized on social media.
According to The Information, when a reporter visited Patel's San Francisco office for an interview, they almost ran into his next appointment in the lobby: Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire was waiting.
This state of "top players proactively approaching" is a microcosm of SemiAnalysis’s current status.
Analyst, Journalist, Investor: The Tension of Three Roles
What is special about SemiAnalysis is that it simultaneously plays three roles that are usually mutually exclusive.
It publishes reports and reviews like a media outlet, sells research to clients like a consulting firm, and Patel himself is a shareholder in about 20 startups, including Thinking Machines Lab, founded by Mira Murati, and chip startup Enfabrica, which reached a licensing and talent acquisition deal with Nvidia valued at over $900 million last September.
More complex is that the subjects investigated by SemiAnalysis are often also its paying clients.
Traditional media usually manages conflicts of interest through "separation of editorial and business"; consulting firms typically do not openly criticize their clients. SemiAnalysis is neither, nor does it intend to become either.
Patel stated directly: "Every major company in the world pays for our data and reports, for a reason. It's impossible to know everything, but I think we know more than anyone else."
The four principles Patel sets for SemiAnalysis are: "Have fun, make money, know everything—and have influence."
Testing the Boundaries of Conflicts of Interest
This business model is currently undergoing a stress test in the form of a lawsuit.
Earlier this year, Patel fired former employee Wei Zhou. Both parties subsequently filed lawsuits against each other.
In the complaint, Zhou alleged that Patel once asked him to include internal information about cloud service provider Fluidstack in a SemiAnalysis research report—while Patel had previously set up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to raise funds for Fluidstack. Zhou claimed he was concerned this might be illegal and was fired for refusing to comply.
Patel’s counterclaim alleges that Zhou was fired for being rude to colleagues, working while drunk, and similar misconduct.
Both parties refused to comment on the lawsuit.
According to a person familiar with the matter, the lawsuit has made several SemiAnalysis clients anxious, prompting calls inquiring how the company handles their information. In response, SemiAnalysis plans to commission a third-party agency to issue a data handling report to reassure clients.
Patel ranked Fluidstack Gold in ClusterMax's cloud provider rankings, but also pointed out that another company he invested in, Prime Intellect, only received Bronze, to show that SemiAnalysis does not favor affiliates. Prime Intellect co-founder Vincent Weisser said he believes Patel can "act independently of his financial interests."
From a Small Town in Georgia to San Francisco
Patel has no formal degree in semiconductors or AI.
He grew up in rural Georgia. His parents are immigrants who run a motel. He applied to MIT and Stanford but was rejected by both and ended up attending the University of Georgia, majoring in data analytics, risk management, and legal studies.
After graduating, he worked for a financial firm but was disappointed with his bonus—"They gave me $100,000, but it should have been more." He then quit and founded SemiAnalysis on his own in 2020.
In the beginning, he built his information network by attending industry conferences, asking lots of questions, and networking, much like how reporters cultivate sources. Early deep analysis of niche semiconductor companies like MediaTek, as well as critical reports on Tesla’s Dojo D1 chip, earned SemiAnalysis its first audience.
In February 2023, he published an analysis on the impact of AI on search engines and associated costs, then noticed a new subscriber: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. A few months later, he published a leaked Google memo circulated on Discord, describing the threat of open-source AI to Google’s strategy, and verified its authenticity with insiders.
Currently, SemiAnalysis has 85 employees in 11 countries. Every Monday, Patel browses weekly reports submitted by each team, tracking the latest developments in every segment of the AI economy.
His office is in downtown San Francisco, shared with Dwarkesh Patel, host of the "Dwarkesh Podcast" (no relation), in the same building as Anthropic researcher Sholto Douglas and former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, who has founded his own investment fund.
Patel’s parents still don’t quite understand what he does. "My mom still tells people I work in IT," he said, "When she says that, I feel like a failure—please stop, mom."
Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```