Both parties believe "victory is in hand" as the U.S. government shutdown enters its second week.

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As the U.S. federal government shutdown enters its second week, there are still no signs of relief from the partisan deadlock in Washington. Due to a lack of sufficient political or practical pressure to break the stalemate, the possibility of a short-term compromise is very slim.

All indications suggest that the deadlock may last another week. The Senate's procedural vote is expected to fail again, unable to garner the 60 votes needed to restart the government. House Speaker Mike Johnson has canceled this week's session, insisting that the Senate must accept the stopgap funding bill passed by the House in order to restart negotiations.

Meanwhile, the White House's stance further complicates the situation. President Trump chose to mock Democrats on social media rather than participate directly in negotiations. White House economic adviser Hassett stated that if no progress is made in negotiations, the President will begin to lay off federal employees. This move has already led to legal challenges from two unions.

Leaders of both parties in Congress insist they have the upper hand and that the other side is responsible for the government shutdown. The shutdown may cause some pain, but the initial suffering is not enough for anyone to make concessions. By mid-October, federal workers, including military personnel, will begin to miss paychecks. This will start to affect consumer spending and economic growth and will bring more frustrated calls to congressional offices. Disruptions affecting large segments of the American public (such as airline passengers) could accelerate the end of the deadlock.

Rising Pressure Amid the Deadlock

Because government funding ran out when the fiscal year ended on September 30, some federal government departments have already shut down. So far, the actual impact of the deadlock on the outside world has been relatively limited, but it is brewing: hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been forced to take leave or work without pay, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the monthly jobs report on schedule, and facilities like the National Arboretum and National Gallery of Art in Washington are closed to the public. However, critical functions such as Social Security benefits continue.

However, broader pressure is coming soon. By mid-October, federal employees, including military personnel, will begin to miss paydays, which will directly impact consumer spending and bring more angry calls from constituents to lawmakers. Historically, when shutdowns begin to impact broader segments of Americans—such as airline travelers—the deadlock tends to end faster. For example, the government shutdown that lasted for more than a month in 2019 finally ended after unpaid work by airport security and air traffic controllers led to flight delays, with Trump ultimately making concessions.

The core sticking point of this deadlock is the subsidies of the Affordable Care Act. Although Democrats only hold 47 seats in the Senate, they have gained key negotiating leverage through filibuster rules. They are determined to tie an extension of an expiring health insurance subsidy to the government funding bill.

Democrats believe that with the open enrollment period for health insurance approaching in November, the political momentum is shifting in their favor. Analysts predict that if Congress does not act, the expiration of reinforced subsidies implemented during the Biden administration will lead to a sharp rise in healthcare costs.

The Republican side says they are willing to negotiate on healthcare, but only if Democrats first vote to reopen the government. House Speaker Mike Johnson has canceled this week's session and insists the Senate must accept the House-passed bill, which would extend government funding to mid-November.

Lack of Trust and Difficult Prospects for Negotiation

The lack of trust is making it extremely difficult to reach an agreement. New Jersey Democratic Senator Andy Kim said that even if Democrats reach an agreement with congressional Republicans, they do not believe the Trump administration will honor it. He said:

"We can't accept a situation where Trump turns around and says ‘oh, actually I won't deliver on those subsidies.’"

Unilateral action by the White House could further exacerbate this lack of trust. House Freedom Caucus chairman, Republican Andy Harris, believes that laying off federal employees will accelerate the end of the deadlock because it will put greater pressure on Democrats. But such moves will undoubtedly infuriate Democrats.

Even so, there are signs that both sides are searching for a way out. According to a source who spoke with New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a key figure seen as vital to a deal, Shaheen spent the weekend making calls in search of a path forward. Republican leader Thune also said that there is dialogue between the two parties, but he emphasized that there will be no negotiations on healthcare details until the government reopens.

Ultimately, any agreement will require the approval of President Trump. According to reports, Trump’s team is increasingly worried behind the scenes that letting the healthcare subsidies expire will create political vulnerabilities for Republicans, especially in states Trump won in 2024 but that did not expand Medicaid and whose residents rely more on the ACA insurance marketplaces. Trump said on Sunday:

“Obamacare has been a disaster for the people, so we want to fix it and make it work.”

However, Republicans are internally divided over the subsidy issue. Some believe the subsidies are too generous and should not be made permanent. James Lucier, Managing Director at research firm Capital Alpha Partners, said that finding a solution acceptable to both House conservatives and Senate Democrats will be extremely challenging. He added: “Republicans are realizing they may have to do something, but they’re waiting for Trump’s instruction.”

As independent Senator Angus King of Maine said:

“You make a deal with John Thune, but if it can’t pass the House, then you’ve actually got nothing.”

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