Breakthrough in U.S.-Iran deadlock: oil prices fall nearly 2%, gold rises over 1%, global stock markets narrow losses

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Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran. Iranian state media subsequently reported that it had received signals from the US indicating readiness to lift the blockade, and this double boost has improved risk sentiment in the market. International oil prices came under further pressure, safe-haven asset gold gained strength, the US dollar fell, and US stock futures rose.

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian official told local media that Iran has received "some signals" indicating the US is prepared to lift the blockade, but no details were disclosed. After the news was released, global oil benchmark Brent crude extended its decline to 1.8%, falling below $97 a barrel; spot gold rose more than 1% intraday, quoting around $4,760 per ounce; the US dollar index fell about 0.15% on the day.

In the stock market, S&P 500 index futures extended gains to 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%; European equity index futures erased earlier losses and turned up 0.1%.

However, market sentiment remains mixed between hope and concern. The shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be lifted. Analysts warn that the rapid rebound in asset prices may have already over-discounted expectations for de-escalation, and substantial risks have not dissipated.

Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.4% at 59,585.86 points. TOPIX closed down 0.7% at 3,744.99 points.S&P 500 index futures rose 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%. European equity index futures recouped earlier losses, up 0.1%.The US Dollar Index fell 0.15% intraday.US Treasuries continued to decline; 10-year benchmark yields were broadly flat at 4.29%. Japanese and Australian bonds of the same maturity also fell in price.International crude oil prices quickly fell, Brent and WTI both dropped more than 1% intraday;Spot gold spiked, up over 1% on the day.Silver up 1.8%, quoted at $78.15 per ounce.Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $77,473.71.

Turning Point in US-Iran Standoff: Blockade Lifting "Signal" Reshapes Global Risk Appetite

This statement from Trump marks a clear shift from his previous stance. As recently as this Monday, Trump said in a phone interview that if no agreement was reached, extending the ceasefire was "extremely unlikely." Merely days later, he announced an indefinite extension and blamed Tehran's "deeply divided" leadership structure for the breakdown in talks.

According to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency, Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, stated: "We have received some signals indicating they are prepared to lift the blockade. Once they do so, I believe the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad." He also said, "If they are willing to sit down and negotiate and seek a political solution, we are prepared. If they insist on war, Iran is prepared as well." Iravani did not further specify the nature or timing of the "signals."

After the news broke, commodities and forex markets reacted rapidly—international oil prices quickly declined, Brent and WTI both dropped over 1% intraday; spot gold surged over 1%; US dollar index dipped slightly by 0.15%.

Market Rebound May Be Overdone: Shadow of Hormuz Blockade Remains

Though global stocks have recovered losses from the war, and oil prices have partly digested the risk premium, Bloomberg strategist Garfield Reynolds warns the market may be too optimistic. He points out that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is causing continued shortages of fuel, fertilizer, and other key goods. Current futures prices suggest these gaps will disappear quickly, but this expectation may not hold true, meaning the stock market's V-shaped rebound could be "too fast, too soon."

Dilin Wu, strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a report that the ceasefire supports risk assets overall, but the situation in Asia may differ—"Many Asian economies are highly dependent on energy imports, so the damage from a prolonged standoff is actually greater, especially compared to the more energy-self-sufficient US."

Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis CIB commented, "The market hopes to put pressure on Trump, and Trump will have to make concessions," suggesting the duration of the Iran conflict will be constrained by market pressure.

William Blair fund manager Vivian Lin Thurston told Bloomberg TV, "The initial shock of the war may have passed, and we are now entering a period of repeated uncertainty and tug-of-war. If you believe in the fundamentals, the market will move beyond the current uncertainties and noise surrounding the conflict."

Fed Nominee: Will Maintain Independence

On monetary policy, Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, stated the Fed needs to establish a new framework for persistent inflation, without providing details. He emphasized that Trump had not asked him for any commitments regarding future rate decisions.

"The President nominated me; if confirmed as Fed Chair, I will act as an independent actor," Warsh said.

In other markets, US Treasuries extended declines, with 10-year benchmark yields broadly flat at 4.29%. Japanese and Australian bonds of the same maturity also fell. Silver rose 1.8% to $78.15 per ounce.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account any user’s special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```