Brent crude falls below the $65 mark! IEA just warned of a "major surplus," and the U.S. Secretary of Energy calls for "doubling production."

Brent crude falls below the $65 mark! IEA just warned of a "major surplus," and the U.S. Secretary of Energy calls for "doubling production."

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International oil prices came under pressure and declined on Thursday, with Brent crude once again falling below the key $65 level. Bearish supply-side factors dominated market sentiment, as statements from the U.S. Energy Secretary calling for a doubling of global oil production, combined with the International Energy Agency's warning of a potential supply surplus this year, heightened traders' concerns about the growth outlook for supply.

WTI crude fell 2% intraday, quoted at $59.59 per barrel; Brent crude dropped 1.5%, quoted at $63.6 per barrel. The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that global oil production must be doubled.

Multiple bearish supply factors were released collectively. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels last week; repair work on the key Black Sea loading facility in Kazakhstan is nearing completion, with export restrictions soon to be lifted; Venezuelan crude is returning to the global market; Indian refiner Reliance Industries has once again purchased Russian crude.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil demand growth on Wednesday, but maintained its judgment that there will be a severe supply surplus this year. Geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, as U.S. President Trump announced on Wednesday a pause on tariffs against Europe.

Supply-side pressures become concentrated

Supply recovery in several oil-producing countries is accelerating. Repair work at the Kazakhstan Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Black Sea oil loading terminal is nearly complete. Export restrictions of recent weeks are set to be lifted, and the backlog of cargoes is being cleared.

Venezuelan oil shipments are returning to international markets. Indian refiner Reliance Industries has once again purchased Russian crude, with deliveries scheduled for February and March.

According to American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels last week. Official inventory data will be released later Thursday.

IEA maintains supply surplus warning

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency slightly raised its forecast for oil demand growth but still maintains that there will be a severe supply surplus this year. The agency provides energy policy advice to major economies.

Oil prices briefly rose in early 2026, mainly supported by short-term turmoil in OPEC member Iran and supply interruptions from Kazakhstan.

Geopolitical risks ease

Geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat. U.S. President Trump announced Wednesday that tariffs against Europe will be suspended and said a potential framework agreement has been reached regarding the Greenland issue.

Saxo Bank strategist Ole Sloth Hansen said, "Geopolitical temperature has cooled by a few degrees." However, he pointed out that, since a series of supply threats remain unresolved and cold weather will boost U.S. demand, oil prices may "remain firm."

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