Bridgewater Associates: Most AI infrastructure deals are already priced in; they hold only a "very small position".

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, is cooling its enthusiasm for AI infrastructure investments. Greg Jensen, Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater, stated that the market has largely priced in the upside potential for AI infrastructure-related deals, and the fund is turning its attention to other investment opportunities.

According to tech media outlet The Information, Jensen stated bluntly, "This was an excellent deal two years ago, but most of it is already priced in." He revealed that Bridgewater currently holds only a "very small position" in AI infrastructure and is shifting its investment focus to deals related to the "disruption and application" brought about by AI. This statement marks a major strategic adjustment in the AI investment logic of this large-scale hedge fund.

Bridgewater's shift in stance is of significant reference value to the market. AI infrastructure stocks—especially those in the chip and data center supply chains—had previously benefited from market expectations of explosive growth in computing power demand, leading to continuously rising valuations. Bridgewater's signal of reducing its holdings suggests that this "picks and shovels" investment logic is no longer offering a sufficient risk-reward ratio at current valuation levels.

Modeling up to 2028 suggests limited upside potential and remaining risks.

Jensen revealed that Bridgewater has systematically modeled the scale of its global data center construction and its impact on various supply chain links, with a time span extending to 2028, and has already begun building a predictive model for 2029.

He pointed out that while there is potential upside for demand growth in AI "shovels and picks" assets—typically referring to chips and other infrastructure—they also face real risks such as financing challenges and construction delays.

Jensen remains moderately optimistic about demand prospects for 2028, but cautiously worded: " We still believe the market may slightly underestimate the actual scale of construction in 2028, but the difference is not significant, and this assessment is based on the premise of no major disruptions. "

This means that even if there is some room for upward movement, its magnitude is quite limited and highly dependent on the smooth progress at the macro and implementation levels.

According to reports, Bridgewater's portfolio adjustments reflect its assessment of the current phase of the AI investment cycle. Jensen explicitly stated that the fund is currently " more interested in AI disruption and application trading ," shifting its focus from betting on the large-scale deployment of AI infrastructure to the industry disruption opportunities brought about by the penetration and implementation of AI technology.

This shift in logic carries a certain forward-looking significance in the investment world: as the excess returns from infrastructure investment are gradually absorbed by the market, funds often begin to look for the next narrative that has not yet been fully priced in —that is, which industries will be impacted by the widespread application of AI, or which companies will be the first to benefit from the adoption of AI.

Analysts believe that Bridgewater has not completely withdrawn from AI-related investments, but rather has chosen to rebalance its portfolio structure to cope with the reality of declining cost-effectiveness of infrastructure themes under the current valuation environment.

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