Buffett: Unprecedented gambling sentiment in the market, lack of ideal investment environment, waiting until no one answers the phone, Powell feels more at ease (full text attached)

Buffett, now off the stage, stated directly in an exclusive interview that the current investment environment is far from ideal, and the real buying opportunity only comes when the market panic reaches the point where “no one answers the phone.”

On Saturday, May 2nd (local time), during a break at the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting, Buffett was interviewed exclusively by CNBC anchor Becky Quick.

Buffett bluntly said that the current market is not the ideal environment to deploy cash, criticized single-day options trading as “pure gambling,” and stated that the best buying opportunity only comes when the market collapses and “no one answers the phone.”

Buffett admitted that the proportion of companies he truly understands in the overall market is no longer what it was ten years ago. However, he also stressed that Berkshire sometimes appears inactive, but other times acts very swiftly.

This year marks Buffett’s first attendance at the annual meeting as an audience member. Just one year earlier, at the same occasion, he announced stepping down as CEO and handing control to successor Greg Abel.

Market Speculation Craze: "Today's Market Is Like a Church With a Casino Attached"

Berkshire currently holds about $380 billion in cash, and the market is highly focused on why it has not made large-scale mergers or investments. Buffett replied, prices are too high, and there are too few suitable targets.

Buffett said:

As for deploying cash for Berkshire, this is not our ideal environment.

He stressed that the company has the right management team and can be picky about opportunities:

Sometimes, we do nothing at all. Other times, we are very active.

When talking about the current macro stock market environment, Buffett used vivid metaphors to describe Wall Street’s speculative atmosphere.

I compare the current market to a church with a casino attached. People can shuttle between the church and the casino. I’d say there are still more people in the church than in the casino, but the casino has become extremely attractive to people.

Buffett pointed out pointedly:

If you’re trading single-day options, that’s not investment or speculation—it’s outright gambling.

Referring to a recent case where U.S. soldiers used Venezuelan military action secrets to make $400,000 in a prediction market, he said:

Unless you know when we’re going to invade Venezuela, like that person, no one can explain buying a one-day option. The scale of such things is astonishing.

Buffett lamented:

We have never encountered people more addicted to gambling than now.

Buffett added that the surge in gambling enthusiasm doesn’t mean the market will inevitably collapse, but it will keep asset prices high for a long time.

The True Buying Moment: "When No One Answers the Phone"

Faced with Berkshire’s nearly $380 billion cash reserve, Buffett admitted that the current investment environment isn't ideal, and high market prices are a major reason for his inactivity.

He also acknowledged that as he ages, the industries he can deeply understand make up less than 10 years ago—he doesn’t expect to have an edge in fields favored by younger people who grew up with new tech.

Nevertheless, he emphasized that Berkshire can make quick decisions and handle any size deals, but is waiting for the right moment. Buffett asserted:

The most likely buying opportunity is when everyone stops answering the phone.

Buffett admitted that in his 60-year career, there were probably only five truly “fat and juicy” years. He recalled the real Wall Street scene during market collapses:

Everyone brags about their excellent trading desks. But when the market crashes, try to reach them—they won’t answer the phone. Even if they do, the bid and ask prices attach all kinds of conditions and the spread is huge... It feels like walking into a slaughterhouse; you won’t want to eat a hot dog for a while.

As for possible “black swan” crashes, Buffett remained calm. He said:

The things people discuss and worry about usually don’t happen. It’s the unexpected black swans that truly shake the market.

But he emphasized:

Worrying about those things is useless. We just need to stay aware.

The Ultimate Weapon Against Inflation and AI Risks

When asked about Fed Chairman Powell’s possible departure, Buffett stated clearly:

When he’s there, I feel more at ease.

He emphasized that runaway inflation is one of the greatest threats any economy faces, and history shows countless nations have paid a painful price.

He recalled the era of Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman, and the history of severe inflation for the current over 3% inflation environment.

He pointed out that once currency loses trust, it’s a tragedy for many.

When facing inflation, Berkshire can’t control macro interest rate trends, but Buffett restated his classic micro defense logic:

If you’re the best doctor or lawyer in town, you’ll make money in any economic environment.

Apart from macroeconomics, Buffett also expressed deep concern about AI deep-fake technology during the interview. In the shareholders meeting, a convincing “fake Buffett” video appeared.

It’s frightening. When about nine countries possess nuclear weapons, and people are working on (deep-fake) technology, it’s especially scary.

Buffett likened the harm of trusting fake information to the classic “War of the Worlds” radio scare.

The Ultimate Message for Shareholders: Follow the “Golden Rule”

When asked for his message to thousands of long-term shareholders and partners, Buffett didn’t talk about investment strategy, but returned to his philosophy of life.

He said:

My first rule for them is the golden rule—do not do to others what you do not want done to yourself.

If the whole world followed the golden rule, society would be incredibly beautiful, Buffett smiled:

From parenting to being a boss, it applies everywhere. It costs you nothing. In fact, it earns better attitudes from others toward you. In a sense, it’s even an extremely “selfish” practice, but I’ve never seen anyone living by it who was unhappy.

Below is the full Buffett interview (AI-assisted translation):

2026 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting – Warren Buffett Exclusive Interview

Host: We’re now sitting down for an exclusive interview with Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett. For the first time in 60 years, he’s sitting in the audience, not on the stage. Warren, just a year ago you surprised everyone by announcing your CEO departure. A year has passed—how do you feel looking back?

Buffett: I feel everything is running smoothly, it really is. For deploying capital in Berkshire, the external environment isn’t ideal right now. But internally, we have the right management, good arrangements. We can choose when to act—nobody tells us what to do. So sometimes we do nothing, other times we’re quite active.

Host: Speakers on stage today mentioned a core insurance underwriting principle: “do nothing” — which matches your investment decision philosophy.

Buffett: In this world, people are always pitching opportunities. The question is, which are really worth acting on. Maybe there are 20,000 reasonable-looking opportunities, but you may not understand them—just leave them alone, don’t touch them.

Host: You said the external environment isn’t ideal. This may point to a question—the company holds almost $400 billion cash, though Greg clarified it’s about $380 billion. Either way, that’s substantial. You’re still managing the investment portfolio, watching the stock market, but haven’t found many targets you want to buy?

Buffett: Then we just do nothing. I’ve been in this business for about 60 years, and there have only been five truly “fat” years. I remember IBM’s old Thomas Watson was asked about his secret of success, and he said: “I only act within my area of expertise, and I always stay close to those areas.” That’s the whole principle. IBM had three different businesses back then, including punch card machines, two eventually failed, so they focused on the one that worked.

Host: When you look around, do you find current valuations too high? I think there must be some businesses you like, but the price isn’t right—Greg also mentioned this onstage.

Buffett: I’d say compared with ten years ago, the businesses I truly understand are a smaller proportion of the market. I haven’t learned new industries for years, so I won’t force myself to, and I won’t claim an edge in areas where young people grew up with these products. Like Apple, you only need to truly understand one.

Host: I’d like to hear your macro perspective—it may not be something Greg would comment directly on. Looking at the macro stock market, what do you think? High prices, or opportunities?

Buffett: I used to compare the stock market to a church with a casino attached—people can freely shuttle between them. I’d say churchgoers and gamblers are both growing in number, but the casino’s pull is stronger than ever.

If you buy a one-day option, that’s not investing or even speculating—it’s gambling, pure gambling. No one can explain why they buy a one-day option. The nature of this activity is astonishing.

We’ve never seen a more gambling-addicted market, but that doesn’t mean all is lost. It does mean many asset prices will remain high for a long time, not easily squeezed down.

This phenomenon has existed for fifty years, but even last week, we saw that despite increasing regulation, people are always scheming to exploit loopholes, not follow the rules—this is a persistent challenge.

Host: With your investment style, in your 60-year career, you said there were only about five “fat” years. So you’re always waiting for the next “fat” opportunity. What conditions create such opportunities?

Buffett: Often it’s a phone call. Last year, an acquisition was struck with just a letter, but the scale wasn’t big enough to matter much for Berkshire.

Host: Bell Labs?

Buffett: No, not Bell Labs. Sometimes there are more zeros attached, sometimes less. We’re large enough to handle deals of any size, our decision speed is faster than anyone, and we keep our word. But in reality, many people are flipping businesses—selling is more valuable to them. You don’t need to sell vacuum cleaners door to door; there are ways to earn more money. There’s more money out there now than ever.

Host: The best opportunities probably still come in times of macro chaos, right?

Buffett: Most likely. The best time to buy is when everyone else stops answering the phone. Usually people brag about their trading desks, but when the market really crashes, call them and no one answers. If they do, their bid and ask are “pending,” the spread is wide. Worse, they’ll use your intention to take advantage of you another way. It’s like entering a slaughterhouse—and afterwards, you don’t want another hot dog for a long time.

Host: Do you see any signs now that such a moment could come again? Is panic building somewhere in the market?

Buffett: If you could see it ahead of time, it wouldn’t happen. Real crises always strike unexpectedly. Someone may suddenly pass away, nuclear war might break out—who knows?

Host: Knock on wood for luck.

Buffett: Knocking wood won’t help—that’s exactly what I’m saying.

Host: Yes, you’re right.

Buffett: Like when the gun went off in Sarajevo in 1914, the archduke was assassinated, then World War I broke out. That’s how life works. The things people talk about and try to prevent often don’t happen; what happens are the things no one expected.

“Out of the blue” is especially apt now—things really can fall from the sky, we just don’t know what will happen tomorrow.

I don’t like talking like this, because worry itself is mostly pointless. It’s necessary to stay clear-headed about risks, but dwelling on worry is useless, even harmful. I don’t like hyping doomsday moods, either.

Host: Greg told me yesterday he’s developed a habit of saying “I’m not worried, I’m not anxious”—maybe it’s a good life attitude. Let’s talk practical issues. Inflation recently rose, Berkshire has many industrial businesses—how do you cope?

Buffett: For runaway inflation, there’s very little we can do, maybe even just avoid the most vulnerable fields. Since WWII, a surprising number of countries have had runaway inflation in my lifetime. When it goes out of control, the world changes. Weimar Germany is an extreme case—a result of WWI, but similar events happened in dozens of countries, some even had six or seven bankruptcies. What people do in finance can be amazing.

Host: Let’s talk about inflation now—it’s not extreme, rates just exceed 3%, far below the nearly 9% seen during COVID. How do energy price rises affect business, and how does Berkshire respond?

Buffett: Before Volcker intervened, things were dire—back then “cash was trash,” people lost faith in currency. I remember borrowing rates hit 12%, while farming returns were about 6%. Nebraska farmers went bankrupt because they bought land above its earning capacity, paying too much interest, believing the dollar would disappear but land wouldn’t. For many, it was a tragedy.

Of course, if you’re the best doctor, lawyer, or TV host in town, you’ll always make money, no matter the inflation. But once people lose faith in currency, the whole country changes. I always hope America never gets there, but we’re not immune. We can manage rate changes of half a percentage point, but if rates need to go up by 50 points, that’s different and much harder.

Host: You've long supported Jay Powell. Last week, he presided over his last FOMC meeting as Fed chair. He said he would stay on amid all threats, continuing his job for the foreseeable future.

Buffett: When he’s in that position, I feel more reassured. Currency is too important to fail. Like Volcker back then—I felt at ease. Frankly, economists aren’t necessarily best at handling these problems. Open a 1950s or 1970s econ textbook—say, Paul Samuelson’s, he’s brilliant, a standard text for 25 years, 900 pages—but nowhere does it mention zero rates. Yet zero rates were perhaps the most important economic event for that era’s students. The biggest disruptions are always things you never imagined.

Host: Let’s discuss CEO changes at some major Berkshire holdings. You mentioned Tim Cook at Apple, who’s done well. But he’s not the only departing CEO. James Quincey just left Coca-Cola, and we spoke to Vicki Hollub, who’s retiring from Occidental Petroleum.

Greg repeatedly emphasizes stability in this investment portfolio, relying on knowing companies and managers. But now these major holdings will have new management—is it a concern?

Buffett: Coca-Cola was indeed an issue for years.

A very strong company is hardest to spot management issues, because its momentum keeps things running—people buy its products daily, management errors don’t show up immediately. That’s one big challenge in investing. Tim Cook—I thought he was excellent from the start. Most of our smaller managers are also good, handling routine matters well, but they may not foresee overwhelming big challenges—dealing with them used to be my job, now it’s Greg’s.

Host: Are you confident in these holdings? Have you met the incoming new managers?

Buffett: They’re all familiar faces.

Host: I mean new CEOs like Tim Cook’s successor.

Buffett: Of course, I’ve met some relevant people at companies in transition. I enjoy interacting with people, but judging them can go wrong. I’m looking at divorce rates lately—it's even more important than judging a CEO. Even after years of working together, the same mistakes keep repeating. Think of when I was young, many people married in their early twenties—just got married. Now people date for five years before marrying, but still make the same mistakes.

Host: So you think we haven't gotten better at judgement?

Buffett: I can't say for sure. Maybe people behave differently before and after marriage. All I can say is, nearly everyone finds marriage different from their expectations after a month, but whether it’s better or worse, I don’t know.

Host: Warren, let’s talk about deep-fakes. There was a “fake Buffett” at today’s meeting—quite convincing. Greg joked the first questioner claimed to be “Warren” sitting in the stands. You've voiced concerns about AI deep-fake tech—what does it mean for the world?

Buffett: This should worry everyone. The worst scenario is a deep-fake impersonating any sitting president. Imagine the consequences. It reminds me of that old incident in New Jersey—a radio drama aired "Martians invading Earth" and triggered mass panic.

Host: You mean Orson Welles?

Buffett: Yes. When you can manipulate information convincingly, people will be cheated out of money, funds will flow the wrong way—it’s very frightening. Especially today, with about nine countries holding nukes, and people developing more destructive stuff—it’s even more unsettling. We’ve dealt with some challenges, but what happens in the future—I really don’t know.

Host: Let’s return to Berkshire—when I spoke to you recently, we discussed Greg Abel. You said he’s a truly outstanding person, but you chose him not because he’s a good person. Why did you pick him?

Buffett: Because he has sharp business judgement. By the way, he’s recently preparing to become a U.S. citizen. He told me about the material he has to study for citizenship. I’ve met people applying for citizenship; I’ve seen their pride at swearing in, and the constitutional knowledge required.

I see that in Greg too. His accomplishments, everything he has, is already outstanding, but becoming a citizen means something real to him. He said his youngest son knew some citizenship exam questions better than him—that amused me—a child knowing more about U.S. citizenship questions than his father. Outside the U.S., you couldn’t imagine such things.

America is a true miracle. What it has created is an absolute miracle. Of course, the uneven wealth distribution is obvious to everyone—a flaw anyone can point out. But the country has a huge attraction, some kind of “secret sauce.” I’ve never pinned it down exactly, but when a country runs for 200 years and people continually want to come, there must be something special.

Greg Abel is eagerly awaiting U.S. citizenship—it means a lot to him, and it’s not something money can buy, or an ad agency can package. In my 95 years, I’ve witnessed this feeling again and again. So when he mentioned waiting for final citizenship approval, I felt genuinely gratified.

Host: I didn’t know he wasn’t a dual citizen yet. I know he’s Canadian, but thought he’d long had dual citizenship.

Buffett: He’s completing the full citizenship process. You might ask—does he need to? He could live fine without it—but he wants it.

Host: Yes. We’re celebrating America’s 250th anniversary, and you’ve lived through 95 of them. Will the “secret sauce” continue? What should we do to guard it, keep its power alive?

Buffett: We do have the “secret sauce”—it’s a good secret, so good I can't really tell what it is. But one thing I know: given a choice, people choose America. Of course, you can name some small countries where people are happy. But what country has attracted immigrants worldwide for hundreds of years?

This country attracts all kinds of people, including the less glamorous. Crime syndicates of every ethnicity—but the selection system never aimed at picking only the “best.” Yet it works, it’s effective.

But the extreme wealth divide is far from utopia’s design. If you were to design a society from scratch, you might not create such high average GDP with inheritance laws like these, you’d choose very different systems. Yet somehow it works. Of course, working doesn’t mean we can’t do better.

Host: Warren, right now thousands of shareholders and partners sit in this arena, many having worked with you for decades. What would you like to say to those who've watched you, partnered with you all these years?

Buffett: I believe the most important rule for a person is the Golden Rule—“do not do to others what you do not want done to you.” I’m not religious, but no one has said it better in 2,000 years, that’s why it’s still here. Today, far more people read a 2,000-year-old book on ethics than any modern writing. The Old Testament has all sorts of stories and perspectives, but if the whole world practiced the Golden Rule, society would be much better.

Host: Treat others as you’d like to be treated.

Buffett: Applies everywhere—in parenting, as a boss, any role—and it cost nothing. In return, others treat you better. In a sense, it’s very “self-interested.” Never seen anyone who truly lives by it who isn’t happy. I’ve seen lots of people, different circumstances, all so.

Host: Warren, thank you for your time today. This is Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman Warren Buffett. Greg Abel will come on stage shortly for his exciting speech.

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