Bullish on space data centers, Goldman Sachs significantly raises its forecast for low-orbit satellite installations: set to surge to 300,000 units by 2031, optimistic scenario reaches 400,000.

Bullish on space data centers, Goldman Sachs significantly raises its forecast for low-orbit satellite installations: set to surge to 300,000 units by 2031, optimistic scenario reaches 400,000.

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From rocket manufacturing and satellite hardware to ground terminal equipment—the industry is now standing at a historic inflection point for large-scale expansion.

According to Wind Chasing Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs released its latest global tech report on Tuesday, raising its forecast for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite base installations in 2031 from 42,000 units to 305,000 units, an increase of over 634%. This rare magnitude of forecast revision marks Wall Street’s revaluation of the LEO satellite industry scale.

The core logic driving the upward adjustment is not a linear extension of satellite internet demand, but the inclusion of an entirely new application scenario: space data centers.

Goldman Sachs expects that after 2029, space data centers will replace satellite internet as the main driver of global LEO installations, with its share jumping from zero to 63%, and further increasing to 79% by 2031. At the same time, the large-scale entry of Chinese satellite operators is also identified as a structural variable that cannot be ignored.

Forecast Significantly Raised: Exponential Growth in Installations After 2029

Goldman Sachs first released an LEO satellite industry forecast in February 2025.

This report shows that by the end of 2025, the actual global LEO satellite installation amount is about 9,982 units, slightly higher than the previously forecasted 9,700 units, with launch progress exceeding initial expectations.

The gap between new and old forecasts is not significant in the near term, but rapidly widens over time.

The new forecast for 2026 is 13,088 units, about 9% higher than the old forecast of 12,000; the new forecast for 2028 is 23,796 units, 25% higher than the old forecast of 19,000. The real turning point appears in 2029—the new forecast rises sharply to 90,042 units, a year-on-year increase of 278%; in 2030 it further rises to 164,244 units, and in 2031 reaches 305,293 units, a full 634% higher than the previous prediction of 42,000.

Goldman Sachs makes it clear that the huge gap between the old and new forecasts mainly comes from incorporating space data centers into the satellite application scenario forecast system. This new dimension fundamentally changes the shape of the industry’s installation growth curve.

Space Data Centers: The Biggest Growth Engine After 2029

Breaking down by application scenario, Goldman’s forecast reveals a key structural shift.

From 2025 to 2028, 100% of global LEO installation growth comes from satellite internet; in 2029, the share of space data centers jumps to 63%, with satellite internet falling to 37%; by 2031, space data centers rise further to 79%, with base case installations at 241,486 units, and satellite internet installations only at 63,807 units.

Goldman’s report outlines the core appeal of space data centers: the ability to obtain unlimited low-cost solar power, and edge computing capacity to directly process satellite data.

However, Goldman also concedes that the technical feasibility of space data centers remains to be tested. This means that whether installation numbers after 2029 can be realized depends, to a considerable extent, on whether this new business model can achieve the leap from concept to scaled implementation, representing the greatest uncertainty in the forecast.

Blue Sky Scenario: If Chinese Constellations Progress as Planned, 396,000 Units Possible by 2031

Goldman simultaneously presents an optimistic “Blue Sky Scenario,” with core assumptions including: better-than-expected rocket launch capacity, accelerated commercialization of satellite communications, and long-term realization of Chinese manufacturers’ plans for a 200,000 LEO satellite constellation.

Under the Blue Sky Scenario, global LEO installations could reach 395,624 units in 2031, about 30% higher than the base case of 305,293 units.

The biggest difference between the two scenarios is China: in the base case, China’s installations in 2031 are 23,750 units, 8% of the global total; in the Blue Sky Scenario, the number jumps to 101,148 units, 26% of the global total.

As of the end of 2025, Chinese satellite operators have only 253 satellites in actual orbit, but have collectively filed applications with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for over 200,000 low- and medium-orbit satellites.

Goldman interprets this as a strategic move to secure spectrum and orbital resources, rather than a plan for rapid short-term launches.

Rocket Technology: The Core Variable for Fulfillment of Installations

Goldman highlights advances in rocket technology as the key constraint on whether the forecasts can be realized, analyzing from the three perspectives of launch frequency, capacity improvement, and reusable technology.

In terms of launch frequency, leading operator Starlink will have achieved an average launch every three days by 2025; in April 2026, SpaceX set a new record by launching two rockets within 19 hours, indicating further efficiency gains are possible.

On capacity, current mainstream reusable rockets can deliver about 17,500 kg to LEO, while next-generation rockets will achieve payloads of 100 to 150 tons—a 6 to 9 times improvement.

For China, breakthrough in reusable rockets is a key milestone for accelerated LEO expansion. Current progress includes:

  • Long March 10 (LM-10): Successfully completed first stage soft landing sea test in February 2026, first stage net recovery completed July 10;
  • Zhuque-3: Partial success in test flight December 2025, recovery test flight scheduled for Q2 2026;
  • Hyperbola-3: First launch planned before end of 2026;
  • PALLAS-1: Reusable rocket from Galactic Energy, first launch planned for 2026.

 

 

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The above highlights are from Wind Chasing Trading Desk.

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