Can Xpeng really become the "Chinese version of Tesla"?

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After experiencing dramatic stock price fluctuations, can XPeng Motors truly become the “Chinese version of Tesla”?

According to Chasewind Trading Desk, JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai stated in the latest report that XPeng is replicating Tesla’s technological roadmap, extending its self-developed chip and algorithm capabilities into two major AI fields: robotaxi and humanoid robots, and has almost doubled its target price to $50/195 HKD.

However, JPMorgan also emphasized that the road to the AI vision is not smooth. The company needs to address many challenges (such as reducing the manufacturing costs of its humanoid robot IRON) and achieve key milestones (such as delivering L4-level autonomous vehicles by the end of 2026). Additionally, the market expects R&D expenses to continue rising, which remains a primary concern for investors.

Strategic Transformation: Benchmarking Tesla’s AI Roadmap

The core bullish logic of the report lies in XPeng’s resolute replication of Tesla’s technological roadmap. JPMorgan believes that XPeng’s extension of its self-developed chip and algorithm capabilities into the two major frontiers of AI—Robotaxi (autonomous taxis) and humanoid robots—is key to its valuation reconstruction.

Specifically:

In the robotaxi business, XPeng plans to launch three robotaxi models in 2026 and start trial operations. JPMorgan expects that in the early stages, 60-80% of L4 vehicles sold will be to end consumers, then gradually shifting toward robotaxi operators by 2028-2030.

The humanoid robot IRON is another significant initiative. The company’s goal is to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, with a long-term target of surpassing one million units in sales by 2030. JPMorgan internal forecasts show the global humanoid robot market will have a compound annual growth rate of 220% from 2025-2035. Considering costs and application maturity, IRON’s initial application scenarios will focus on showrooms, office reception, security, and factory workers in specific environments (such as clients like Baosteel).

Additionally, XPeng plans a strong product cycle in 2026-2027, providing both pure electric (BEV) and extended-range (EREV) power options for most models. Management emphasized that three existing models will have extended-range versions launched in Q1 2026, with four more new models planned for the full year. Analysts predict that new models will drive a 35% increase in sales next year.

JPMorgan believes that progress in these three key business areas will provide “ammunition” for XPeng’s long-term transformation.

We believe the next major stock price rally will occur in 2026-27, driven by the company’s AI initiatives… Although investors may not see significant revenue contribution from these plans until the second half/fourth quarter of 2026 or later… we believe that when there is greater visibility on technology deployment, XPeng’s stock price will actively price in its AI ambitions from Q2/second half of 2026.

But the road to AI ambitions may be bumpy, and investors’ concerns are real: high R&D investment, whether L4-level vehicles can be delivered as scheduled by the end of 2026, and how to reduce manufacturing costs of the humanoid robot “IRON”—these are immediate challenges.

JPMorgan did not shy away from these, and conducted scenario analysis with bear, base, and bull valuation models to quantify the potential upside and financial pressures. In terms of valuation, JPMorgan used SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts valuation), and its target price of 195 HKD is based on “bear scenario” estimates for new businesses like robotaxi and humanoid robots. This means that even under the most conservative assumptions, XPeng’s AI story remains attractive.

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