CATL prototyping: humanoid robots transformed into assembly line "blue-collar workers", market potential may exceed 48 billion by 2035
Humanoid robots are rapidly entering real-world factories, starting to take on the role of the “new generation of blue-collar workers.”
The latest milestone comes from battery giant CATL. According to official news, the world’s first new energy power battery PACK production line to achieve large-scale deployment of humanoid embodied intelligent robots has officially been put into operation at their Zhongzhou base. The humanoid robot named "Xiao Mo" can now accurately perform the final functional test procedure with high voltage risk before the battery pack leaves the line.
The introduction of "Xiao Mo" is seen as a “milestone breakthrough in the application of embodied intelligence in intelligent manufacturing.” According to official disclosures, its successful plug-in rate remains stable at over 99%, its operational rhythm is at the level of skilled workers, and its daily workload has tripled. This successful case provides key empirical evidence for humanoid robots to move from the laboratory to real, complex industrial production lines.
This is not an isolated development; it confirms a general trend identified by industry analysts. In a deep research report, Guotai Haitong Securities points out that humanoid robots are in the early stage of commercialization, following a progressive strategy from simple to complex applications. The report argues that for the market and investors, the current key is to observe their economic benefits and technological maturity in specific scenarios, rather than expecting them to immediately and fully replace human labor.
From Supplement to Connection: The Complementary Positioning of Humanoid Robots and Industrial Robots
Humanoid robots entering factories are not meant to directly replace highly-automated industrial robots, but to fill the gap between traditional automated equipment and human labor.
The report from Guotai Haitong Securities makes it clear: “Humanoid robots are not meant to replace industrial robots; the goal is to replace manual labor positions.” The two will form a complementary positioning: industrial robots will continue to focus on fixed stations for high-speed, heavy-load, precise repetitive tasks, while humanoid robots leverage their flexibility and mobility.
Their complementarity is reflected in:
- Mobility: Industrial robots are fixed to workstations, while humanoid robots “have autonomous mobility, can shuttle through narrow stations, and work across regions.”
- Environmental Adaptation: Industrial robots rely on “structured scenarios,” while humanoid robots “can adapt to unstructured scenarios autonomously.”
- Task Adaptation: Industrial robots are suited for “standardized, mass” tasks, while humanoid robots adapt to “flexible, small batch, composite tasks.”
The report believes that, in the short term, manufacturing will form a model of “human decision-making + precise execution by industrial robots + flexible connection by humanoid robots.” Factories, because their “operating environments are more structured,” become ideal “training grounds” for humanoid robots, which will extend into homes, commerce, and other scenarios as technology matures. In industrial scenarios, the report points out, “the wheeled form has advantages of stability, long battery life, and fast mobility, and will become the preferred mode for industrial applications.”
Landing Roadmap: Material Handling and Quality Inspection First, Basic Assembly on the Way
The report analyzes that, in the initial phase of deployment, humanoid robots will start from “short-chain tasks”, continuously accumulating operational data to train and enhance their capabilities.
The report believes that humanoid robots will “first excel at handling and quality inspection tasks.”
The reason is that these tasks “generally have semi-flexible characteristics, require high human involvement, and have not been fully replaced by traditional automation equipment.” They are also “short-chain, relatively independent processes”—perfectly matching the current “development stage of embodied brains.” For example, flexible loading and unloading in stamping workshops, component sorting and delivery in assembly areas, etc.
For “basic assembly tasks, such as pre-tightening screws, pre-installing parts, vehicle badge installation, wire harness plug-in, and other basic assembly steps, humanoid robots are currently in preliminary testing.”
It is worth noting that, in industrial scenarios, the selection of robot form is equally important. The report believes that “the wheeled form has the advantages of stability, long battery life, and high movement speed, making it the first choice for industrial applications.” Compared to bipedal forms, wheeled robots move more efficiently and with lower risk on flat factory floors, better meeting manufacturing requirements for stability and continuous operation.
Core Commercialization Bottlenecks: ROI and Technical Barriers
Although application scenarios are becoming clearer, large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots still faces two core obstacles: economics and technological bottlenecks. For any company, the decision to introduce new equipment ultimately comes down to return on investment (ROI).
Guotai Haitong Securities has calculated that “ROI determines commercialization: to achieve the minimum target of a two-year payback period, robot prices need to drop to the 100,000 RMB range, with efficiency on par with human labor.” The report states that currently, humanoid robots used in industrial scenes are priced between 300,000 and 500,000 RMB, which is far from the target price of 160,000 RMB (assuming annual labor cost of 80,000 RMB and a two-year payback). This means the industrial chain must rely on technological iteration, large-scale production, and supply chain optimization to significantly lower costs.
On the technical level, there are two especially notable bottlenecks.
First, “the development of the embodied brain lags behind, and lacks the ability to handle complex long-chain tasks.” Currently, humanoid robots still struggle to complete complex procedures requiring multiple coordinated steps without human intervention; their task generalization and autonomous decision-making are still in early stages.
Second, “fine operation ability needs improvement; the durability, flexibility, and force control of dexterous hands are a major hurdle from demonstration to practical use.” In tasks requiring precise hand-eye coordination, such as assembling tiny parts or connecting cables, robot skills still lag far behind humans.
Additionally, the report highlights another important direction: “In some developed countries, labor shortages and high human costs may allow for a closed commercial loop for humanoid robots to be achieved first; overseas expansion could become an important strategy.” Report data shows that in 2025, the average hourly wage for US warehouse workers will be $23.99, while Agility Robotics' Digit robot is estimated to have an operating cost of only $10-12 per hour, with significant economic benefit.
48 Billion Market Outlook: Automakers and Robot Companies Advancing Together
Despite many challenges, the outlook for humanoid robots in industrial settings remains optimistic, driven by the need to address worldwide labor shortages and replace work in hazardous environments. The report predicts that, by 2030, there will be a labor gap of nearly 8 million in global manufacturing.
Based on this, Guotai Haitong Securities quantifies the market: “By 2035, the total demand for humanoid robots in China’s industrial scenarios in automobile manufacturing, electronics manufacturing, and logistics warehousing could reach 484,000 units, with a market size of 48.36 billion RMB.” This forecast paints a massive growth prospect for investors.
In this transformation, automakers play a crucial role. The report emphasizes, “Automakers such as Tesla and XPeng possess both technical and scenario advantages, driving the deployment of humanoid robots in industrial settings.”
Tesla, XPeng, and other automakers can leverage their accumulated technology and supply chain advantages from smart vehicles for development of humanoid robots, and they can be first to validate them within their own vehicle production lines.
These companies are able to reuse their AI, perception, and control technologies from smart cars in robots, and more importantly, provide their own factories as valuable real-world application scenarios and training data sources.
- Tesla Optimus: Already tested in factories for battery sorting and other tasks, and plans to build a larger-scale third-generation humanoid robot production line by 2026.
- XPeng IRON: Has entered their own factories for automotive production training and plans to achieve large-scale production of advanced humanoid robots by the end of 2026.
Moreover, collaboration between robot body companies and automakers is becoming increasingly close. For example, US company Figure’s humanoid robot has been deeply piloted at BMW Group’s factories. According to Figure founder Brett Adcock, their Figure 02 robot has participated in producing 30,000 vehicles in BMW’s factories over the past six months, totaling more than 1,250 hours of operation. These pioneers’ exploration is accumulating valuable experience for the commercialization route of the whole humanoid robot industry.
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