Ceasefire details are unclear; the 800 ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz still dare not move.

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The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has been announced, but has not immediately resolved the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides show clear differences in their wording on core provisions, and more than 800 merchant vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf remain stranded. The tense situation in the global energy supply chain is unlikely to be quickly reversed in the short term.

According to Xinhua News Agency, at Eastern US time on April 7, Trump announced on social media his agreement to suspend bombing and attack operations on Iran for two weeks. However, the statements from both sides on the conditions for reopening the strait differ sharply: Trump claims to achieve a "complete, immediate, and safe opening," while the Iranian Supreme National Security Council states that this is a two-week arrangement for safe passage coordinated with the armed forces and subject to "technical constraints." According to CCTV News, an anonymous regional official revealed that the ceasefire agreement includes a clause allowing Iran and Oman to collect transit fees from passing ships, with Iran using these fees for reconstruction - creating a fundamental conflict with the prior international practice that treats Hormuz as an international waterway, historically free from transit fees.

The ceasefire news has generated cautious optimism among shipowners, but according to Bloomberg, most shipowners say they need more details before taking concrete action. Currently, among the more than 800 stranded ships in the Persian Gulf are 426 crude and product tankers, 34 LPG ships, and 19 LNG ships, with about 20,000 seafarers detained. If these energy-laden ships can pass smoothly, it will significantly ease the global energy supply chain, which has been under tension for five weeks.

Whether this window can truly be opened depends on whether the differences in provisions can be eliminated. JPMorgan released a report on the eve of the ceasefire announcement, stating that Iran has limited motivation to fully open the strait without a comprehensive agreement with the US. Whether the US Navy provides escorts, and whether the insurance market offers enough coverage to shipowners, are key variables in enabling vessels to move again.

Major differences exist in the ceasefire terms; the issue of fees becomes a critical dispute

The gap in the ceasefire statements of both sides is the greatest source of uncertainty for future passage.

According to CCTV News, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council declared that Iran accepted Pakistan's ceasefire proposal and submitted a ten-point plan to the US via Pakistan. Key provisions relating to Hormuz include controlling transit under coordination with Iranian armed forces, and establishing a security transit protocol to ensure Iran's leading position. The wider range of provisions covers issues such as ending war against all "Axis of Resistance" members, demanding the US withdraw all troops from the region, full compensation to Iran, lifting all sanctions and related UN resolutions, releasing frozen overseas assets, and accepting Iran's uranium enrichment activities. It remains unclear whether the US and Iran have reached consensus on these terms, and the effective date of the ceasefire is not yet certain.

The fee issue is especially sensitive. The Strait of Hormuz lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, and the international community has always treated it as an international waterway, never charging transit fees to passing ships. If the ceasefire agreement does contain such a clause, it will set a new precedent for passage rules on this key waterway. Previously, reports indicated Iran was demanding about $2 million in transit fees per passing ship, but whether all sides have agreed on the payment mechanism remains unclear.

800 ships, 20,000 seafarers — The cost of deadlock continues to accumulate

According to Kpler data, most stranded ships in the Persian Gulf are energy carriers: 426 crude and product tankers, 34 LPG ships, and 19 LNG ships are stranded, and other vessels are loaded with agricultural products, metals, and containers as dry bulk.

The fate of LNG ships will be watched especially closely. Since the outbreak of war, no fully-loaded LNG vessel has succeeded in passing Hormuz; the latest attempt ended with a temporary turnaround. Last year, about 20% of global LNG trade volume flowed via Hormuz. At least 19 LNG vessels are now either fully loaded and urgently seeking port or on their way to LNG terminals to load.

The situation for crews is equally worrying. According to statistics from the International Maritime Organization at the end of March, about 20,000 civilian seafarers are trapped on these ships and supporting vessels, facing shortages of supplies, fatigue, and mental stress, prompting warnings from UN-affiliated organizations. In peacetime, about 135 ships transit Hormuz daily; this number has declined to a trickle during the five weeks of war.

JPMorgan: Iran lacks motivation for full opening

On the eve of the ceasefire announcement, JPMorgan issued a report, taking a cautionary stance on whether the strait can truly reopen.

Natasha Kaneva, the bank's commodity strategist, noted that even during the blockade, oil flow through Hormuz did not drop to zero — the passage of "friendly nations'" ships continues, about 15% the pre-war average. She believes the blockade may have initially been an Iranian tactic to pressure the US, "but it is increasingly seen by Iran as a strategic goal with potential economic and financial benefits, and it may seek to formalize and make it permanent."

Based on this, JPMorgan judges that Iran has limited motivation for full opening without a comprehensive ceasefire with the US. Managing passage maintains its core leverage — pushing up global energy costs and pressuring adversaries — and selective clearance serves its economic and strategic interests. The bank predicts that even if Iran eventually allows more flow, "it will likely be controlled, fee-based, and conditional."

Restoring passage will take time; US Navy escort may become a key catalyst

The industry widely believes that even if the ceasefire is confirmed, global shipping flows will not return to normal quickly.

"You can't restart global shipping flow in 24 hours," says Jennifer Parker, adjunct professor at the Defense and Security Research Institute, University of Western Australia:

"Tanker owners, insurers, and crew need to believe the risk has really been reduced, not just temporarily paused."

A possible catalyst for substantial resumption of flows is whether the US Navy can provide escorts for passing ships. If the ceasefire comes into effect, Iran will avoid attacking US naval assets, meaning the US military can begin to shield passing ships.

At the same time, reports say the US last week announced a doubling of the reinsurance guarantee limit to $40 billion for ships willing to transit Hormuz, and has brought in new insurance partners including AIG and Berkshire Hathaway. This may give the US a bigger voice in the maritime insurance market, posing competitive pressure on traditional insurance giants like Lloyd's of London.

The worst current scenario is if the "ceasefire fog" persists, ships do not act due to ongoing risks, and ultimately miss what may be only a two-week window for passage.

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