Ceasefire extension between the US and Iran boosts Asia-Pacific markets; Japanese stocks hit a historic high, and Taiwan's stock market value surpasses the UK's for the first time.

``` Expectations that the U.S. and Iran may extend the ceasefire agreement boosted Asia-Pacific markets across the board on Thursday, with risk assets continuing to recover. On Thursday, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.2%, approaching pre-war levels. Japan led the region, with tech stocks as the main driver. Taiwan's stock market capitalization rose to $4.14 trillion, surpassing the UK to rank seventh globally, and the AI hardware concept continues to attract capital inflows. Wallstreetcn noted that the U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to reaching a framework agreement to end the conflict and are considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks, with "major breakthroughs" in nuclear negotiations. However, the Iranian foreign ministry said it cannot confirm if the U.S. and Iran will extend the ceasefire, and the White House denied requesting an extension. Although the course of the war remains uncertain, investors have returned to stocks as the market expects the U.S. and Iran to continue negotiations, avoiding further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. KCM Trade’s chief market analyst Tim Watler said: "Traders across Asia are holding on to hope, expecting progress from new rounds of U.S.-Iranian peace talks in the coming days. Oil prices falling below $100, together with hopes for diplomatic breakthroughs, have jointly boosted stock markets." Major assets performed as follows: - Brent crude held at about $95 a barrel, WTI crude edged up 0.1% to about $91.42 a barrel, both well below peak conflict levels. - Falling oil prices eased inflation pressure expectations; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped 1bp to 4.27%. - Gold rose 0.6% to about $4,820 per ounce; silver rose 1.5% to about $80 an ounce. - The dollar remained under pressure; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw its longest losing streak since December 2006. The Australian dollar rose to its highest since June 2022 versus the USD, the yen rose to 158.58 per dollar, and the offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8151. Japan Leads Asia-Pacific, Tech Stocks as Main Driver The TOPIX gained 1.33%, while the Nikkei 225 rose 2.43% Thursday, hitting a record high, led by tech and consumer cyclical stocks. The Korea Composite Index rose more than 2%, with the Kosdaq small-cap index up 1.10%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.6%, underperforming peers. According to Wallstreetcn, Australia's Thursday jobs data showed March employment up 1.4% YoY, and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield pointed out that major Asian stock indexes are enjoying another busy trading day, as investor focus is shifting from war back to corporate profitability, and “the tug-of-war between short-term inflation pressure and mid-term economic growth risks is keeping the yield curve in a relatively stable range, which is also positive for equities.” Wilson Asset Management portfolio manager Matthew Haupt warned, however, that the market has basically priced in the ceasefire sentiment: "From here, new catalysts are needed for further upside, as systematic buying is largely nearing its end." Taiwan Stock Market Surpasses UK in Value, AI as Core Driver The Taiwanese equity market’s capitalization jumped to seventh globally, marking a key Asia-Pacific market event this week. According to Bloomberg data, as of Wednesday, Taiwan’s total stock market capitalization climbed to $4.14 trillion, surpassing the UK at around $4.09 trillion. Taiwan’s weighted index has rallied 16% so far this month, and over 25% year to date; on Thursday, it rose as much as 0.7% intraday, continuing a seven-session winning streak. TSMC reached another record high, with strong revenue growth further consolidating its core position in the global AI supply chain. Foreign investors made net purchases worth $8.9 billion in Taiwan stocks in April, likely to set a record for single-month net inflows, after a record $28.7 billion of net outflows in March. Broadridge Financial Solutions’ Asia-Pacific asset management growth lead Yoon Ng said: "Taiwan continues to be regarded as a proxy for AI hardware. As long as AI capex momentum remains, the capital inflow should be sustained." By comparison, the UK’s FTSE 100 has gained about 6% year to date, weighed by sticky inflation and relatively high interest rates compared to other European economies. However, strategists at Barclays, Citi, and HSBC remain positive on the FTSE 100 as a geopolitical hedge or defensive allocation, citing that energy and basic materials account for nearly one-fifth of the UK market capitalization. A Bank of America survey in April showed the UK as Europe’s second-most favored market, behind only Switzerland, but global fund managers are still 16% underweight the UK. Oil, Dollar, and Bond Market Moves Rising ceasefire expectations triggered visible changes in commodities and FX markets. Brent crude remained around $95 a barrel, WTI edged up 0.1% to about $91.42, both well below conflict peak levels. Easing oil prices has reduced inflation pressure expectations; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 4.27%. Gold advanced 0.7% to about $4,824 per ounce; silver gained 1.5% to about $80. The dollar index remained under pressure. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw its longest losing streak since December 2006; AUD/USD hit its highest since June 2022, the JPY rose to 158.58, offshore CNY stayed close to 6.8151. Goldman Sachs analysts Kamakshya Trivedi and others noted in a report that North Asia, emerging market Europe, and Latin America are leading this rebound, while ASEAN oil importers and India are lagging: “Given ongoing disruptions to physical supplies, we expect this differentiated pattern to continue.” Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets have risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own circumstances. Those who invest accordingly bear their own responsibility. ```