Ceasefire faces uncertainties on its first day: Trump “flip-flops,” refuses to acknowledge Iran’s “10-point plan” as the basis.

The ink on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has barely dried, yet disagreements have already surfaced publicly. Less than 24 hours after announcing a two-week ceasefire, Trump reversed his earlier statement to use Iran's "10-point plan" as the basis for negotiations and insisted that the US "15-point proposal" should dominate subsequent talks, putting the fragile ceasefire agreement to a severe test on its very first day.

According to CCTV news on the 9th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly accused that before US-Iran negotiations even began, three key clauses of the "10-point plan" had already been breached—including the failure to fulfill Lebanon ceasefire commitments, the incursion of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the US denying Iran's right to enrich uranium.

The Iranian side warned that if the US does not accept the "10-point plan" as the negotiation framework, Iran's Supreme Leader would not approve signing the ceasefire agreement.

Despite the volatile situation, the markets still view this ceasefire as a signal of temporary easing. US stocks rose on Wednesday, and oil prices fell below $95 per barrel. However, analysts have warned that the gap between the two sides' demands is vast, and whether the ceasefire can last until the scheduled negotiation window remains highly uncertain.

Trump Overturns "10-point Plan", White House Says It Was "Thrown in the Trash"

On the night the ceasefire was announced, Trump confirmed on social media that he received Iran's 10-point proposal and said the proposal "could serve as a viable basis for negotiations."

However, according to media reports, Trump quickly shifted his stance on Wednesday, repositioning the US "15-point proposal" as the basis for negotiations, and claimed "many terms have already been agreed upon"—even though Iran had clearly rejected the proposal previously.

The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt subsequently endorsed this change in strong language, stating that Iran's original proposal was "fundamentally unserious, unacceptable, and has been totally rejected by Trump and US negotiators—literally thrown in the trash." She emphasized, "The idea that Trump would accept Iran's wish list as an agreement is utterly absurd."

The core of Iran's "10-point plan" includes: coordinating control of the Strait of Hormuz passage rights with Iranian armed forces, withdrawal of US combat troops from all regional bases, full compensation for Iran's losses, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, acceptance of Iranian uranium enrichment activities, and terminating relevant UN Security Council resolutions. According to media reports, provisions involving control over the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment rights are clear red lines for Washington.

Lebanon Front Sparks Tensions, Iran Threatens to Withdraw from Agreement

Another major loophole in the ceasefire agreement lies in the ambiguity surrounding the Lebanon front. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated clearly on Wednesday that the ceasefire agreement does not apply to Lebanon, and Israel will continue military operations against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. This position is fundamentally at odds with the understanding held by Iran and the mediator, Pakistan.

According to Tasnim News Agency, Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon have prompted Iran to threaten to withdraw from the ceasefire agreement if the assaults do not stop. Ghalibaf also listed the Lebanon ceasefire as the foremost clause in the "10-point plan" that was violated, citing Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's previous public statement—that the ceasefire "takes effect immediately in all places including Lebanon and other regions."

Trump only clarified the Lebanon issue on Wednesday morning, stating that the ceasefire does not cover the Lebanon front, and lightly remarked in a PBS phone interview, "The problems over there will be resolved, it’s no big deal."

Meanwhile, the Kuwaiti military reported that Iranian drones launched "intensive" attacks on energy, power, and desalination facilities, causing significant destruction, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Behind the Ceasefire: Trump Compromises Under Pressure, Multiple Dilemmas Drive Shift

According to Xinhua analysis, it was overlapping pressures that forced Trump to announce a ceasefire with only about an hour and a half left before the "final ultimatum."

On the military front, US-Israeli large-scale airstrikes against Iran had lasted for 40 days. Iran displayed strong resistance capabilities; US aircraft were shot down or damaged by Iranian air defenses, high-value surveillance assets repeatedly destroyed, and Iran’s low-cost missiles and drones saturated attacks pushed US air defense systems into a “magazine depth” crisis.

On the economic front, the impact of the conflict has transmitted to the US domestic market. Due to the fighting, US gasoline prices have surged nearly forty percent and financial markets have been violently shaken. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, cautioned that if oil prices remain high, the US economy risks falling into recession.

Politically, Trump’s popular base has been eroded. By late March, his approval rating had dropped to 35%, its lowest since his return to the White House. His core voter bloc is splitting, and several conservative opinion leaders have publicly opposed the war. Republican Senator Rand Paul warned that if conflict keeps driving up oil prices, Republicans would suffer a "catastrophic defeat" in the midterm elections.

Uncertain Negotiation Outlook, Analysts Warn Disagreements Are Hard to Bridge

According to Xinhua, the US and Iran plan to hold face-to-face talks in Islamabad this weekend. Expected US attendees include Vice President Vance, Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner; Iran’s delegation is led by Speaker Ghalibaf. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz has officially invited both delegations to Islamabad for negotiations on the 10th.

However, analysts are generally cautious about the prospects. James Acton, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that Iran’s proposal contains no reference to its nuclear program but includes clauses on Strait of Hormuz passage; the US accepting this as negotiation basis would be "a huge concession." Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, said Iran's 10-point proposal "reads like a wish list drafted by Iran before the war."

Dennis Ross, former Middle East envoy for President Clinton, commented, "These two weeks are likely to be full of variables," and stressed the need to investigate which commitments each side has actually made.

Ding Long, professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, believes that US-Iran differences remain evident, Israel is an uncontrollable factor, but given both sides' pragmatic attitude, it’s possible a compromise may be reached in negotiations. The mode of this ceasefire is quite similar to the one Trump’s administration reached previously in Gaza—again leaving core differences to be resolved later, and the Gaza experience shows that this approach often severely constrains subsequent progress.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the special investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. If you invest based on this, you do so at your own risk.