Ceasefire reversed in just three weeks? Iranian missiles attack merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz

After a brief period of easing, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran suddenly reversed sharply, as Iran resumed substantial military strikes on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Tuesday, according to Xinhua News Agency, the US news site Axios quoted a US official on the 6th as saying that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran fired at least two missiles at several merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two merchant ships were hit and severely damaged, but there were no casualties.

This sudden military action directly shattered the memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire signed by both sides less than three weeks ago. On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI crude futures trading at $69 per barrel.

Missiles Strike Merchant Ships Again, Ceasefire Memorandum Near Collapse

Less than three weeks ago, both the US and Iran showed an unusual sign of easing tensions. On the 19th, both sides officially signed a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland that included 14 points. US President Trump and Vice President Vance signed the electronic version of the agreement. According to the core terms of the agreement, the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz was listed as the top of the three core elements, and the US Treasury then exempted Iran’s crude oil and derivatives exports from sanctions.

After the signing of the agreement, substantial actions were quickly implemented. Two Iranian supertankers successfully crossed the blockade zone and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman, and both sides agreed to restore maritime traffic to full capacity within 30 days. This series of developments was once viewed as a clear signal that the US-Iran conflict was ending.

However, the missile attack on July 7 directly violated the core commitment to open the strait stated in the agreement. The move to fire at least two missiles at merchant ships not only confirmed that the blockade and attack risks in the strait were still escalating, but also placed the fragile memorandum of understanding at risk of complete collapse.

Crossroads of Diplomatic Mediation and Military Response

The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world’s most important oil transportation routes, has its navigability directly affecting the global energy market. Previously, the conclusion of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum and the lifting of the maritime blockade had completely released the geopolitical risk premium from the oil market, significantly driving down international oil prices and alleviating global concerns about crude oil supply interruptions.

Now, with the resumption of attack operations, investors may reassess the navigational safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If missile strikes lead to sustained obstruction of transport or trigger a wider military conflict, the global crude oil supply chain will face the threat of substantial disruption.

According to the framework of the previously signed memorandum of understanding, nuclear issue negotiations were arranged for subsequent stages. However, as the "opening of the strait"—a core precondition—has now been substantially undermined, the subsequent negotiations may change.

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