Changxin Technology IPO begins: The largest IPO in STAR Market history—how much can you earn per winning lot?

The biggest IPO in the history of the STAR Market has officially begun subscription, with the frenzy for the new shares of Changxin Technology, China’s leading domestic DRAM manufacturer, sweeping across the A-share market.

On July 16, Changxin Technology started online subscriptions with an issue price set at 8.66 yuan per share. Each lot is 500 shares, and successful applicants will need to pay 4,330 yuan per lot. The fundraising scale for this IPO can reach up to 66.6 billion yuan; if successful, it will surpass SMIC’s record of 53.2 billion yuan set in 2020 and become the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market. Based on this year’s STAR Market new stock average first-day increase (489.83%), a single lot of Changxin Technology is expected to earn about 21,200 yuan; referring to the entire market’s average first-day increase (285.47%), single lot earnings are estimated to be about 12,400 yuan.

Notably, some institutions are predicting that Changxin Technology’s market cap after listing may exceed 2 trillion yuan, and Huaxi Securities has termed it the “new anchor point for hard tech valuations.” However, Professor Li Guoping from Central University of Finance and Economics cautions that the company’s issuance price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 308.92 times, far exceeding industry averages. Short-term share prices will be largely driven by sentiment, and price volatility may be severe at the start of trading; investors must clarify their holding strategies.

Record-breaking issuance scale, payment for lottery win is 4,330 yuan

This time, Changxin Technology initially issues 6.688 billion shares, accounting for about 10% of the post-issuance total shares. Joint lead underwriter CICC has been granted up to 15% over-allotment option (“green shoe mechanism”); if fully exercised, the total shares issued will increase to 7.691 billion.

At an issue price of 8.66 yuan/share, before exercising the over-allotment option, the expected total funds raised will be about 57.919 billion yuan, with net proceeds estimated at 57.638 billion yuan; if the green shoe is fully exercised, the fundraising total will reach 66.607 billion yuan, with net proceeds of about 66.310 billion yuan. Wind data shows that Changxin Technology is the most shares issued in any IPO this year, and the most shares issued in any IPO in STAR Market history.

The issue price corresponds to a 2025 non-diluted post-exclusion price-to-earnings ratio of 308.92 times (without the over-allotment option exercised), significantly higher than the industry average of 76.32 times and comparable companies’ average of 134.62 times. Based on total shares post-listing, Changxin Technology’s listing valuation stands at 579.178 billion yuan. Li Guoping points out that this valuation is considerably below the previous institutional forecasts of 1 trillion or even 3 trillion yuan, leaving some profit space for the secondary market; the pricing at just over 8 yuan may attract a large number of small and medium investors who have STAR Market trading access.

Subscription rules: must meet both value and qualification thresholds

Participation in IPO lottery requires meeting both qualification and market value standards. For qualification, investors must activate STAR Market trading beforehand, have average daily assets in their securities and capital accounts of no less than 500,000 yuan over the past 20 trading days, and at least 24 months of securities trading experience.

For market value, average daily holdings of Shanghai market shares must not be less than 10,000 yuan for the 20 trading days before T-2; each 5,000 yuan of average daily Shanghai market value corresponds to one subscription unit (500 shares), with maximum subscription requiring a Shanghai market value of 33.49 million yuan. The online subscription limit is 3.349 million shares.

As for the schedule, on July 17 (T+1), lottery win rate and distributions will be announced; on July 20 (T+2), lottery winners will be released, and winners must ensure sufficient funds in their accounts before 16:00 on the same day, as the system will automatically deduct payment; July 21 will confirm the final allotment results. Additionally, each IPO can only be subscribed to once per Shanghai market account, and once confirmed, the subscription cannot be withdrawn.

Aggregated institutional forecasts estimate an online win rate between 0.30% and 0.70%; due to the significant increase in online issuance after the over-allotment is activated, the actual win rate may be higher than these forecasts.

How much can you earn from one lot? Data comparison

Choice data shows that as of July 15, a total of 77 new stocks have been listed this year, with the average first-day gain reaching 285.47%. Calculated by closing price on the first day, the average single-lot earnings are about 53,700 yuan, the best in the past three years and 2.1 times that of 2024. Among these, STAR Market per-lot earnings reach 108,700 yuan, far exceeding other sectors.

Changxin Technology per-lot profits calculated in two ways: using the average first-day gain of the entire market of 285.47% this year, expected earnings per lot are about 12,400 yuan; using the STAR Market new stock average first-day gain of 489.83%, per-lot earnings are about 21,200 yuan.

The most profitable new stock this year is Lianxun Instruments, per-lot earnings up to 358,600 yuan; Changjin Photonics ranks second at about 309,500 yuan; Zhenbao Technology, Hengyunchang, Dapu Micro, and Tolens per-lot profits are about 270,200 yuan, 139,600 yuan, 99,200 yuan, 97,100 yuan respectively. It should be noted that these high-profit cases are concentrated in a few hot sectors and are not generally representative.

Post-listing impact: capital diversion and supply chain reconstruction coexist

From the industry chain perspective, Aijian Securities believes that Changxin Technology’s funds raised are all directed to DRAM capacity expansion and advanced process upgrades. Coupled with sustained high demand for AI server computing power, the logic for domestic DRAM substitution continues to strengthen, likely driving performance elasticity from top to bottom across storage manufacturing, component distribution, and storage module supply chains. GF Securities also points out that the value and importance of AI-related upstream infrastructure will continue to rise.

A brokerage investment consultant also notes that Changxin Technology’s large IPO size may temporarily divert market capital; if the storage price cycle peaks alongside a mean reversion of high-valuation targets, some segments may see compressed valuations.

Huajin Securities points out that although IPO pricing cycle indicators have converged, they are still at historical highs; the upcoming half-year report season may heighten market fear of high valuations. The institution recommends caution for new and secondary new stock sectors, emphasizing the importance of pacing and flexibility in a highly volatile market, and suggests focusing on subdivisions in new quality productivity chains with lasting catalysts and long-term growth prospects such as computing power AI, commercial space, and energy construction.

According to CITIC Securities’ calculation, buying at the closing price on the IPO’s first day, cumulative average declines for new stocks on the second day, fifth day, thirtieth day, and ninetieth day since 2024 are all over 5%, 13%, 12%, and 14% respectively, with the proportion of gains only 27%, 19%, 21%, and 19%. The data indicate that new stocks’ first day often overspends short-term price space, and investors pursuing gains should carefully assess risk.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market carries risk and investments must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account users’ special investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article fits their specific situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.