China's soybean and iron ore imports in September hit a record high for the same period, rare earth exports fell 31% month-on-month, and copper imports reached a yearly high.

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China's imports of soybeans, iron ore, and coal rose significantly in September, with soybean imports reaching the second-highest record in history, and both iron ore and coal imports hitting their highest levels of the year. Copper metal imports also surged, while natural gas imports remained weak.

On October 13, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that, measured in RMB, China's imports in September grew by 7.5% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. In August, exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year.

It is noteworthy that China's September exports in US dollar terms reached a six-month high in year-on-year growth, while import growth hit a 17-month high.

Regarding bulk commodity exports, September's rare earth exports dropped to 4,000.3 tons, declining for the third consecutive month. On the import side, soybean imports set a historical second-high, and imports of iron ore, copper metal, and coal all hit their highest levels this year.

Rare earth exports decline for three consecutive months

The latest data shows that September's rare earth exports dropped to 4,000.3 tons, the lowest since February, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Nevertheless, the cumulative export volume for the first nine months of this year still reached 48,355.7 tons, up 13% year-on-year.

Notably, although rare earth exports fell by 31% month-on-month in quantity, the export value rose further from $55 million in August to $59.6 million, an increase of over 8%, reflecting a further rise in rare earth product prices.

As the data released on Monday are aggregated, it is not yet clear which specific products and countries are affected. Detailed data will be released on October 20.

Rare earths are key materials used in products ranging from electric vehicles to aircraft engines and military radar.

Soybean, iron ore, and coal imports rise significantly

China's imports of bulk commodities in September continued the upward momentum from the previous month, with significant increases in imports of soybeans, iron ore, coal, and copper metal, reflecting intensified purchasing by buyers to cope with seasonally rising autumn industrial demand.

Soybean imports set a second-highest record: China's soybean imports in September reached 12.87 million tons, the highest ever for that month, up 13.19% year-on-year, setting the second-highest record in history.

JCI analyst Rosa Wang said: "China's soybean supply outlook is increasingly stable, with strong imports from January to September providing support. Purchases surged during Argentina's temporary duty-free period, and there were sustained large-scale purchases from Brazil."

Guoyuan Futures agricultural researcher Liu Jinlu said that the rise in soybean imports was mainly due to the ample supply of South American soybeans, resilient domestic demand, and the temporary opportunity to buy lower-priced soybeans from Argentina.

Iron ore imports hit record high for the same period: China's iron ore imports in September reached 116.33 million tons, up 11.72% year-on-year, setting a record high for the same period.

Horizon Insights analyst Jiang Mengtian said:

"Iron ore imports were expected to be higher in September, as pig iron production was maintained at high levels thanks to healthy profit margins. Steel mills also stocked up in advance of the National Day holiday, which drove up September's ore imports. But such a high monthly import figure still exceeded expectations."

Coal imports climb to nine-month high: China, the world's largest coal consumer, imported 46 million tons of coal in September. While this is lower than the record of 47.59 million tons set in September 2023, it is the second-highest September import level ever recorded.

Analysts noted that "the rapid domestic price rebound in the second half of the year further widened the price gap between domestic and foreign coal, making imported coal more competitive. This price advantage is the main driver of the rapid recovery in imports."

Crude oil imports steadily rising: China imported 47.25 million tons of crude oil in September, reflecting a significant increase in refinery capacity utilization. Data from Longzhong Information shows that the operating rate of China's atmospheric and vacuum distillation units reached 73.45%, up 1.28 percentage points month-on-month and 3.22 percentage points year-on-year.

Natural gas imports remain weak: September's natural gas imports (including pipeline and liquefied natural gas) fell 7.8% year-on-year to 11.05 million tons.

Analysis shows that this downward trend reflects structural changes in China's demand for natural gas, as well as the substitution effect of the continuous improvement in domestic supply capacity on import demand.

Structural adjustment in the copper market: Data shows that imports of copper concentrate fell 6.3% month-on-month in September, mainly due to mine disruptions, with recent issues at Indonesia's Grasberg mine impacting the supply of smelting materials.

Unwrought copper and copper products imports surged 13% month-on-month to 485,000 tons, as buyers switched to processed metals to offset concentrate shortages. Analysts say this shift reflects adaptive adjustments to supply chain disruptions.

In the first nine months, imports of integrated circuits, copper ore and concentrates, and soybeans grew, while imports of refined oil, steel, and coal declined

In terms of quantity, September imports of soybeans, iron ore and concentrates, and integrated circuits were 12.869 million tons, 116.326 million tons, and 55.54 billion units, respectively, up 13.17%, 11.71%, and 11.68% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, imports of refined oil, natural gas, and coal were 3.948 million tons, 11.048 million tons, and 46.003 million tons, respectively, down 11.88%, 7.86%, and 3.33% year-on-year.

For the first nine months of the year, imports of integrated circuits, copper ore and concentrates, and soybeans grew by 8.9%, 7.7%, and 5.3% year-on-year; imports of refined oil, steel, and coal fell by 17%, 12.6%, and 11.1% year-on-year, respectively.

In terms of value, September imports of copper ore and concentrates, integrated circuits, and iron ore and concentrates were 52.15 billion yuan, 293.03 billion yuan, and 80.5 billion yuan, respectively, up 24.61%, 14.20%, and 13.59% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the import values of coal, natural gas, and refined oil were 22.29 billion yuan, 33.81 billion yuan, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively, down 28.10%, 20.41%, and 15.39% year-on-year.

For the first nine months of this year, the import values of copper ore and concentrates, integrated circuits, and unwrought copper and copper products increased by 19.9%, 9.8%, and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively. The import values of coal, refined oil, and natural gas fell by 33.4%, 20.4%, and 13.6% year-on-year, respectively.

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