Citadel: Trump's tweets have already disrupted the "crude oil trading model."

``` Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Trump’s frequent posts on social media have fundamentally changed the way crude oil is traded, leaving traders struggling to keep up. On April 20, Sebastian Barrack, head of Citadel’s commodities business, stated at the Global Commodities Summit that in the early stages of the conflict, oil and natural gas market volatility soared by about 300%. He revealed that he specially set up a screen to monitor Trump’s social media updates in real time. Barrack added that previous energy crises were mainly driven by traders tracking “physical flows”, but now market participants must also simultaneously monitor “social media information flows” including from Trump. He said: “You must understand that the market is fluctuating according to this information.” At the same time, Barrack reminded traders to beware that “this information is not necessarily well thought out.” According to Wallstreetcn, JP Morgan crude oil analyst Natasha Kaneva believes that although crude oil prices are falling, “there has been no improvement whatsoever” in the fundamentals. In early March this year, a U.S.-Iran conflict caused shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to plummet, with oil prices soaring to nearly $120 per barrel. Subsequently, with each statement from Trump, the market repriced violently amid intense volatility. On March 23, he posted on social media that negotiations with Iran were “productive,” sparking a sharp drop in oil prices; earlier, he said the war was “basically over,” also causing a large-scale sell-off in the energy market. Pre-war Pricing Errors; Entering “Deep Research Mode” After Conflict Barrack admitted that oil and gas traders seriously underestimated the risk of significant market dislocation from the Middle East conflict prior to its outbreak. He said this conflict was “a well-flagged potential risk,” with a 50% to 70% probability of occurring at some point this year, but the market did not fully price this in. He noted that before the war broke out, Citadel found it difficult to identify trades with an informational edge, even though the company did bet on price increases in oil “distillates” (including diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil). Barrack said: “To be frank, unless you’re inside the Trump administration, there’s hardly any real informational advantage. It’s more like a low-skill gambling environment, and the market has already priced these probabilities quite thoroughly.” With the outbreak of conflict, Barrack said his team quickly entered “deep research mode,” building a comprehensive model covering the impact on energy supply and demand in various global regions to capture trading opportunities. He said: “These opportunities open and close extremely quickly, because the market reacts very sensitively.” Barrack gave positive recognition to the communication and collaboration between the Trump administration and industry traders. He said that the Trump administration “did an excellent job in understanding the market and staying in contact with relevant industry people,” and also had a deep grasp of market mechanisms. But he also criticized the White House for being overly confident in its ability to curb oil prices, including measures such as releasing strategic petroleum reserves, escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and providing marine insurance. He said: “These solutions were not fully considered.” JP Morgan: Price Drop Is an Illusion, No Improvement in Fundamentals On April 19, JP Morgan said in its latest report that the recent sharp and counterintuitive pullback in spot oil prices was mainly caused by Trump’s statements about the easing of tensions, but the bank’s chief commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva bluntly stated: “Structurally, there has been no improvement in the current fundamentals.” Iran’s export volume, about two million barrels per day, has nearly dropped to zero after Trump’s blockade measures, and the previous supply gap of about 14 million barrels per day may have now widened further to between 15 and 16 million barrels per day. JP Morgan believes that, with tightening supply and rapid inventory depletion, oil prices should be rising, and the only reasonable explanation for the current price decline is: demand is being destroyed. JP Morgan believes that the current market supply-demand balance relies on rapid inventory depletion and forced refinery production cuts. As OECD crude inventories approach operational minimums around May 15, the pressure for refineries to further reduce production will intensify significantly, and the fundamental crisis in the crude oil market may lead to even more violent price swings. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```