Citibank China humanoid robot company survey: Everyone is very optimistic; the industry may achieve exponential growth by 2026, at least doubling!

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The Citigroup team recently conducted research on the Chinese humanoid robot industry chain, covering 5 core companies. The research results show a clear industry consensus: the global production of humanoid robots will enter an exponential growth phase in 2026, and is expected to at least double compared to 2025.

According to WindTrader on November 26, Citigroup pointed out in its latest research report that with the world's leading complete machine manufacturers and domestic companies accelerating production expansion, global humanoid robot production capacity is expected to see explosive growth in 2026, and revenues of related Chinese supply chain companies are expected to more than double. The report believes that the current sector price correction offers investors a good window for investment layout.

Citigroup's report further analyzes that the core driver of growth comes from the surge in demand for upstream core components brought by the expansion of complete machine production capacity, especially in key components such as 3D vision, speed reducers, and ball screws. From complete machine manufacturing to upstream component supply, all segments of the industrial chain show a clear growth logic, making humanoid robots one of the highly certain investment tracks in today's technology sector.

2026 As the Growth Explosion Tipping Point

This Citigroup research covered key segments from 3D vision, complete machine manufacturing to core components. The interviewed companies generally expressed optimism about the industry's prospects, predicting that by 2026, revenues related to humanoid robots will see exponential growth, or at least double.

Behind this consensus, it reflects that the global pace of the humanoid robot industry is accelerating significantly. Leading global manufacturers are actively building supply chain systems and sharply raising production capacity targets, meanwhile, the commercialization process of domestic complete machine companies is also progressing steadily, with orders for thousands of units already taking shape. The dual boost from domestic and international production is driving upstream core component demand to the verge of explosion.

For investors, this means the humanoid robot industry has shifted from the technology verification stage to the scale mass production stage and that the industry's leap forward is counting down. As production capacity gradually releases, all segments of the industrial chain will sequentially enter the performance realization cycle.

Clear Growth Path for Core Segments with Defined Value

The Citigroup report points out that China's humanoid robot industry chain is already mature, and 2026 will witness full-scale mass production and revenue explosion from core components to complete machines.

In the field of 3D vision, Chinese companies have made significant breakthroughs: their core products have made it onto the recommended list of leading international manufacturers and occupy about 70% share in specific niche markets. Since each humanoid robot requires four sets of 3D vision solutions and single machine value is 8000 RMB, it is expected that by 2026, related company revenues may exceed 100 to 200 million RMB.

For core components of the execution system, areas such as speed reducers and ball screws perform especially well. Leading companies' revenues from the first three quarters of 2025 have almost reached the hundred-million-yuan level, accounting for 20% of total revenues, and have successfully entered the global mainstream complete machine manufacturers’ supply chains. Each robot requires 30–40 ball screws, pushing single unit value up to 20,000 RMB.

The complete machine manufacturing segment is also progressing rapidly. The cumulative order value for leading domestic companies in 2025 has reached 800 million RMB, and shipments in 2026 are expected to leap from 500 units in 2025 to 2,000 units, with related business revenue expected to exceed 30% of total revenue, marking a critical stage for large-scale machine commercialization.

Supply Chain Demand Surges

The research report states that the global humanoid robot industry is forming a pattern of "global leaders + accelerated domestic follow-up", pushing the entire industry chain into a period of explosive demand.

Global leading manufacturers are accelerating supply chain building and sharply raising production targets, pushing core component suppliers like micro ball screws and harmonic reducers to urgently expand capacity. Some companies will need to raise supporting capacity to 3,000 units/week by Q1 2026, and further to 5,000 units/week by year's end.

Meanwhile, domestic complete machine makers have already landed thousand-unit orders and are expected to enter a full-scale ramp-up of mass production in 2026, driving simultaneous surges in demand for 3D vision, motors, and linear actuators. This two-way expansion rhythm at home and abroad is pushing upstream core component companies into a boom cycle of simultaneous order and capacity expansion, making them the main beneficiaries of the current wave of industry growth.

Opportunities Amid Correction

Citigroup's report notes that the current pullback in relevant company stock prices is providing investors with an important opportunity to lay out positions.

From an investment logic perspective, the core competitiveness of complete machine companies lies in their commercialization progress and order acquisition capabilities, while upstream component manufacturers, with their “high single unit value + rigid demand” attributes, show greater profit flexibility. Companies that have successfully entered the global complete machine supply chains have especially prominent growth certainty.

In the long run, the industry's growth potential is broad. Over the next ten years, the global humanoid robot market is expected to exceed $100 billion. The Chinese supply chain, with its technological accumulation in core components and mature cost-control capabilities, will continue to occupy key links in the global industrial chain, providing investors with sustained and reliable long-term allocation value.

Risk Reminder and DisclaimerThe market involves risk; investment should be undertaken cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take individual users' special investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs into account. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situations. Any investment made accordingly is at your own risk. ```