Cliff-like decline! IDC: Global smartphone shipments will plunge 13% in 2026, Q1 has already dropped 4.1%.

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The global smartphone market is facing the most severe demand contraction in recent years.

According to the latest IDC data, global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to decline by 13% year-on-year, a decrease of about 160 million units, bringing the total down to approximately 1.1 billion units.

This decline comes against the backdrop of Q1 2026 shipments having already fallen by 4.1% year-on-year, with the market chill evident at the start of the year. IDC points to rising component costs, climbing energy prices, and increased geopolitical tensions as the main suppressing factors.

According to Counterpoint Consulting, the sharp rise in memory prices in the second half of 2025 has placed significant cost pressure on the global smartphone industry, impacting the low-end market in particular. In the second half of 2025, sales of smartphones priced below $150 dropped by 11% year-on-year.

This means the entire smartphone industry chain—from chips and screens to contract manufacturing—will face greater demand pressure.

Low-End Market Hit First, High-End Brands Relatively Resilient

IDC data shows that in Q1 2026, low-end models with retail prices under $200 were the most severely impacted.

In contrast, Samsung and Apple maintained growth thanks to their high-end product lines. Samsung ranked first in the world with a 21.7% market share, up 3.6% year-on-year, driven mainly by the Galaxy S series and foldable-screen products. Apple followed closely with a 21% market share, up 5% year-on-year, with its performance in China standing out—the company’s shipments in China increased by 23% year-on-year.

This divergence indicates that, as overall demand contracts, consumers are more inclined to delay upgrades or opt for high-end models rather than switch to cheaper alternatives.

According to IDC, Xiaomi’s shipments saw a double-digit decline, and OPPO and vivo also decreased. However, there are exceptions. Honor, Nothing, and Google Pixel achieved double-digit growth, which IDC attributes to overseas market expansion and the differentiated appeal of AI features.

Discrepancies Between IDC and Counterpoint Rankings

It is noteworthy that the two major research firms do not completely agree on the Q1 market landscape.

IDC puts Samsung as number one in global shipments for Q1 2026, whereas Counterpoint Research places Apple at the top. Counterpoint cites Apple’s growth momentum and notes differences in shipment calculation criteria between the two organizations.

Despite discrepancies in ranking, both reports point to the same conclusion: the overall smartphone market is slowing down, and only a few brands have found growth paths.

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