Cobalt prices soar by 160%! Export restrictions in Congo have already caused an 80,000-ton supply gap, and the global "cobalt shortage" may persist until 2030.

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Impacted by Congo's export controls, the global cobalt market has fallen into a severe shortage, a situation expected to persist through the end of this decade.

Commodity trading firm Darton Commodities stated in its latest report that since Congo implemented export restrictions, the benchmark price of cobalt has risen more than 160%, while the price of cobalt hydroxide has more than quadrupled. In 2025, global refined cobalt production will drop by about 20%, the first decline in five years, resulting in a supply gap of over 82,000 tons. Darton expects that although the gap may narrow this year, the shortage will persist year by year until 2030.

This supply crisis is rippling down the industrial chain. Darton warns that as the raw materials shortage deepens, downstream markets are facing growing price pressures. Meanwhile, the fragility of the supply chain has prompted the industry to increase investment in product diversification and material alternatives, a trend that could suppress demand growth in certain end markets over the long term.

Congo's Regulation Redefines Supply Structure

Congo typically accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supply. In February 2025, its government announced a blanket ban on cobalt exports, later switching in October the same year to a strict quota system, aiming to curb oversupply and drive price rebounds.

However, after the ban was replaced by the quota system, exports did not resume immediately, as there were significant delays with implementing the new procedures.

Darton notes in its report that export controls have "pushed the cobalt market into an acute technical shortage." While inventories built up during previous surplus years have somewhat eased the pressure, these reserves are now being structurally consumed.

Prices Surge, Shortage Persists

According to Fastmarkets Ltd., since the export restrictions were imposed, cobalt benchmark prices have risen by over 160%; prices for cobalt hydroxide—the primary form of Congo’s exports—have surged more than threefold.

In 2025, global refined cobalt output will decrease by about 20% year-on-year, marking the first decline in five years and creating a market gap of more than 82,000 tons. Darton projects the shortage will persist from 2026 to 2030, even as the annual gap may gradually narrow.

Against this backdrop, Darton believes Congo may consider moderately easing export quotas this year to maximize profits in a tight, high-priced market while avoiding the risk of excessively suppressed demand.

Alternative Sources: Potential and Risks

To compensate for the shortfall in Congolese supply, attention has shifted to Indonesia. Imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—a nickel intermediate product containing cobalt—from Indonesia are expected to keep growing.

However, Darton also points to multiple risks facing Indonesian MHP production, including disruptions to sulfur supply, insufficient ore availability, and environmental compliance pressures, suggesting these issues may constrain the full potential of its substitution capability.

Supply Chain Fragility Sparks Structural Rethink

This crisis has exposed profound structural risks stemming from the global cobalt supply chain’s heavy concentration in a single country. Darton points out that the shock from Congo’s export limits has accelerated industry efforts to diversify products and research alternative materials.

Cobalt is widely used in batteries, aerospace, and defense. Darton warns that if the trend toward substitution deepens, it could ultimately suppress cobalt demand growth in end markets over the long term, adding greater structural uncertainty to this supply crisis.

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