Codelco, Chile's copper mining giant, saw its January output plunge by 47% month-on-month, raising suspicions that its late last year production increase figures were "inflated."

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Codelco’s production data once again shows severe fluctuations, raising doubts in the market about the authenticity of its year-end surge and the credibility of its long-term production increase targets.

On March 17, Reuters reported that data from Chile’s National Copper Commission showed that Codelco’s copper production in January this year was 91,000 tons, a sharp drop of 47% compared to 172,300 tons in December, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Last December, the company recorded its highest single-month output in ten years, far surpassing the average of 105,600 tons from January to November.

This drastic gap has prompted internal inquiries within the industry about how its production data is formed. According to the report, four unnamed former Codelco executives expressed doubts about the above data and the company’s 2030 production increase target. Codelco insists that the increase is real and valid, attributing it to inventory use and improvements at some mines.

Year-end Data Faces Internal Doubts

The skepticism first came from former executives. “The entire industry adjusts data to better reach targets, but this gap is clearly worth questioning,” a former Codelco executive who requested anonymity after leaving the company told Reuters. “To put it another way, it also reveals the lack of adequate planning.”

Juan Ignacio Guzmán, general manager of mining company Horizonte, said that year-end surges are common in the industry, but such drastic fluctuations may be an alarm signal, or indicate adjustments in statistical criteria.

According to an internal Codelco production document obtained by Reuters, in December, the Chuquicamata mine’s oxide copper production reached 25,000 tons, more than six times above the forecasted 4,000 tons; the Andina mine recorded its highest single-month output since 2014; and output at the Salvador mining district reached 11,500 tons, far exceeding the expected 4,600 tons.

Codelco: Production Increase Is Well-Documented

In its response to Reuters, Codelco attributed the December production surge to three factors: using stockpiles at leaching fields, utilizing inventory from unplanned sources, and improvements in operational performance at some mines.

The company said Chuquicamata’s output increase was mainly due to fully utilizing heap leach inventories; Andina’s surge stemmed from improved ore grade and processing efficiency; and Salvador’s boost was related to ramp-up of the Rajo Inca project, as well as release of stocks accumulated during the shutdown of the Potrerillos smelter in June this year.

Codelco stated, “This result was crucial in emergency response situations and demonstrates the company’s ability to maintain production strength in terms of technology and talent.”

Long-Term Concerns Behind the Production Surge

This controversy reflects the deeper structural pressures facing Codelco. In 2023, the company’s copper output fell to a 25-year low, mainly due to continuously declining ore grades and delays in several key mining projects.

Production rebounded somewhat in 2024, with further increases to 1.33 million tons in 2025, up 3,000 tons from 2024. However, this level still falls far short of the company’s 2030 target of 1.7 million tons.

Reuters cited several industry experts who pointed out that the December production surge followed by a sharp drop has led the market to take a cautious view on whether Codelco can achieve sustainable structural production increases, and the credibility of its 2030 target is facing further doubts.

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