Commodity veteran: Now is the best time to bottom-fish gold, with a long-term target of $10,000; silver is bullish to $150–$200.

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Gold prices have pulled back more than 25% from their highs, but for experienced commodity investors, this adjustment is precisely a rare opportunity to build positions.

Recently, at the Rick Rule Symposium, Wealthion economist and seasoned fund manager Trey Reik stated that the recent selling pressure on gold mainly stems from market concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. However, he believes this logic has a fundamental flaw—the scale of US debt means that the Fed has almost no real room to tighten policy. He predicts that the $4,000 level will be the bottom area for this round of adjustment, and his long-term gold price target points directly to $10,000, while silver is expected to rise to between $150 and $200.

Sentiment at the event also confirmed the return of market enthusiasm. This year's Rick Rule Symposium attracted about 800 participants, an increase of about 60% from last year's 500. Trey Reik believes this change itself is a strong signal that more and more investors are making precious metals and resource-related assets a core allocation direction for the next three to five years.

Selling Pressure Logic Questioned; $4,000 May Be the Bottom of This Cycle

Trey Reik attributes gold's recent decline to a set of "ABC inferences": oil prices rise → inflation heats up → the Fed tightens; three links in a chain. But he made it clear he doesn’t agree with the conclusion of this chain.

"Interest payments on US federal debt have reached $1.2 trillion and are expected to rise to $2.1 trillion annually over the next decade," he said, "With such a debt structure, the Fed has extremely limited room for significant rate hikes." He also pointed out that the policy preference of the Fed's new leadership is to focus on medium- to long-term economic impacts, rather than overreacting to short-term inflation expectations.

From a market sentiment perspective, oversold signals are quite obvious. Trey Reik cited Jake Bernstein's DSI sentiment index, noting that a week and a half ago it fell to an extremely low level of 10%—in more than 20 years of tracking this indicator, he has only seen such readings twice. The index has since rapidly rebounded to 42%. “$4,000 is a very reasonable cycle low for this round,” he said.

"Paper Gold" Trading Amplifies Volatility, Mining Company Profits Remain Robust

At the event, Majestic Silver Mining’s CEO Keith revealed in a luncheon speech that when silver prices previously surged, banks once refused to underwrite traders, and the market nearly faced a systemic collapse risk. He said the company conservatively estimates its silver production cost at about $38 per ounce, and at current prices, profit margins remain considerable.

Another mentioned company, Seabidge Gold, if recalculated with the current gold price of around $4,000, would see its reserve net present value climb from $4.9 billion to about $10 billion.

Financial commentator Nomi Prince further noted at the meeting that commodities driven by physical demand, like copper, have far fewer futures market participants, making their price volatility much lower than that of gold and silver—this shows that precious metal prices are to a significant extent distorted by “paper trading” sentiment and do not fully reflect fundamentals.

In the keynote speech at the conference, Rick Rule specifically emphasized the mining M&A theme, proposing a logic chain of “the best companies acquire the next best”: large miners need to replenish reserves and will acquire mid-sized producers; mid-sized companies will target emerging producers; at the bottom of the food chain, exploration and drilling firms will see the most concentrated M&A activity.

Trey Reik relayed Rick Rule’s judgment that in the coming one to two years, a plethora of deals will occur in this sector, and some companies might see their valuations rise to astonishing levels.

Long-Term Holding Is Core Strategy; a Three- to Five-Year Horizon Is Essential

Trey Reik repeatedly emphasized that precious metals and mining investment are not suitable for short-term trading mentalities. He pointed to Rick Rule’s historical record, noting that all investments in Rule’s career which saw 10x returns had an average holding period of as long as five years, often including at least one 50% drawdown along the way.

"If your investment time frame is less than three to five years, this market may not be for you," he said, "You must be psychologically prepared to accept major drawdowns—that's part of this game."

He advised that investors who have a clear view of the long-term weakening trend of the dollar and US debt risks can use this summer’s adjustment period to research individual stocks and gradually build positions. "Rick says, a year from now you’ll be glad; five years from now, you’ll be overjoyed."

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market has risks; investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ particular investment targets, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situations. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```