Concerns over labor force decline ease: US "private non-farm" added 60,000 new jobs in September, exceeding expectations and marking the best performance this year

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As the U.S. government shutdown led to the suspension of non-farm payroll data releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a report from private data provider Revelio Labs (RPLS) showed that the U.S. added 60,000 new jobs in September, the best for 2025. This figure far exceeded the previous ADP report showing a loss of 32,000 jobs, effectively easing market concerns about a weakening labor force.

Data from Revelio Labs showed that employment growth in September was "slightly higher than expected," mainly driven by the education, healthcare services, and retail trade sectors. The agency's chief economist, Lisa Simon, stated that although employment growth was relatively modest, combined with recruitment and wage data, it indicates that the labor market is continuously slowing down rather than collapsing.

Revelio data shows structural improvement in employment

Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS) data for September shows that employment growth was mainly concentrated in high-quality sectors. Education, healthcare services, and retail trade drove job growth, while government-related sectors such as leisure and hospitality and business services saw declines.

Lisa Simon stated that although September's job growth was slightly above expectations, it was still relatively small. Combined with the decline in job postings, wage levels, hiring, and employee attrition rates, these data suggest the labor market continues to slow down.

This data has been highly sought after by Wall Street traders and economists, and Bloomberg has added it to its ECAN "hottest" dataset database. Using a regression model built from historical correlations, Revelio Labs showed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have reported about 38,000 new jobs in September.

Data provides important reference for Fed policy

Data showing a slowdown but not a collapse in the labor market supports the market narrative that the Fed is coping with an economic slowdown rather than a recession. This provides the central bank with room to cut interest rates to offset the slowdown.

RPLS is built on over 100 million U.S. user profiles, providing a clear view of labor force dynamics. This statistical system uses a format similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracking employment levels, wages, and job transfers, surpassing the scale of traditional surveys and providing a continuous view of the labor market.

This dataset is designed to bridge the widening information gap, providing policymakers, businesses, and the public with unbiased data about the U.S. labor force. During the BLS shutdown due to the government closure, independent data sources like RPLS are crucial for providing market transparency.

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third day. The Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the September jobs report on time, forcing traders and the Fed to "fly blind" without official data.

Earlier this week, ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, causing market participants and economists to worry that the U.S. economy is on the brink of a labor recession.

In the absence of official data, private sector alternative data sources have become critical. The Institute for Supply Management found that both manufacturing and service sector jobs rebounded moderately from multi-month lows, alleviating worst-case market concerns.

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