Conflict tug-of-war! Iran's largest gas field hit by airstrike, Brent spot crude surges toward $105

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Iran's energy facilities were attacked, oil prices surged, and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf continue, putting renewed pressure on the global energy market.

On Wednesday, Iran's state TV reported that parts of Iran's largest gas field—the South Pars Gas Field—were damaged in an airstrike, and the Asaluyeh oil industrial facilities were also affected, with further details of the attacks yet to be confirmed.

Following the news, Brent crude futures quickly surged, breaking the $100 mark, with Brent crude spot prices trading around $105 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate.

According to previous reports by Xinhua News Agency, Majid Mousavi, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Aerospace Force, stated on the 18th that Iran plans to "launch the toughest retaliatory strike against the enemy so far". On the same day, Iranian Army Commander Amir Hatami said he would respond "decisively" to the death of Larijani, "making the enemy regret it".

Trump stated that the United States expects to end the conflict soon. However, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, the impact on the global energy supply chain is spreading to issues such as fuel shortages in Asia and rising global inflation expectations.

Near Standstill at Strait of Hormuz, Limited Capacity on Alternative Routes

Iran's state TV reported that parts of the South Pars Gas Field were damaged in an airstrike, and the Asaluyeh oil industrial facilities were also affected. The specific scale and extent of the damage have not yet been independently verified.

The South Pars Gas Field is Iran's largest gas field and a primary supplier of natural gas to Turkey. If Turkey loses part of its supply from Iran, it may increase its demand on the already tight spot market for liquefied natural gas.

Brent crude has risen nearly 70% so far this year, with most of the gains occurring after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran and Tehran subsequently retaliated against regional energy and shipping assets. The current round of conflict has pushed energy prices to multi-year highs.

Persian Gulf countries are actively seeking alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but progress is limited. As one of the world's most important energy transport channels, the Strait of Hormuz currently sees almost no traffic flow.

Iraq plans to restart a pipeline connecting the Kurdistan Autonomous Region to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan to resume some crude exports. However, the pipeline's capacity can only handle a small fraction of Iraq's pre-war output—current production in Iraq has dropped to about one-third of pre-war levels. PVM broker analyst Tamas Varga commented:

"If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the direct impact will be a rise in energy prices, which the US government may greatly underestimate. The US's objectives regarding Iran remain unclear, and the end of the conflict is nowhere in sight."

Fuel shortages caused by the conflict have already appeared in many parts of Asia, and pressure on the global supply chain continues to accumulate.

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