Congo (DRC) will end its cobalt export ban in October and introduce a quota system.

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The world's largest cobalt producer—the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—is preparing to end its months-long export ban, replacing it with a strict export quota system.

On Sunday, September 21, the DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced in a statement that the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year will end on October 15. Immediately afterward, a new export quota policy will come into effect until further notice.

Quota Details Released, Supply "Valve" Tightened

According to the new regulations issued by ARECOMS, mining companies in the DRC will be allowed to export just over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year. For 2026 and 2027, the annual export quota ceiling is set at 96,600 tons per year.

This figure stands in stark contrast to the DRC's actual production capacity. According to data from trading firm Darton Commodities, in 2024 alone the country's cobalt output is expected to be nearly 220,000 tons, accounting for about three-quarters of global output. This means the upcoming annual export quotas are less than half of the 2024 production, suggesting that global cobalt supply will remain significantly restricted.

ARECOMS stated that the quotas will be allocated to each company based on their historical export volumes and "will be notified to each company."

It is noteworthy that 10% of the authorized export volume for 2026 and 2027 will be allocated to the agency "for national strategic priority projects." The ARECOMS statement also said the agency has the right to adjust overall quotas according to market trends or to "advance local processing of cobalt hydroxide into higher-value products."

This leaves room for the government to make dynamic adjustments based on market changes.

Behind the Shift from a Complete Ban to Quota Management

On February 22 of this year, amid a sharp drop in cobalt prices, the DRC announced its first suspension of cobalt exports, and in June extended the ban for another three months.

The current policy adjustment comes as the export ban effectively reversed the downward price trend. Since the ban was announced, cobalt prices have rebounded by more than 60%, and the price of cobalt hydroxide—the DRC's main export product—has surged more than one and a half times.

The DRC's move is seen by the market as an attempt to solidify the price rebound and establish its dominant position. For global electric vehicle manufacturers, battery producers, and commodity traders, this new policy will undoubtedly become a key variable influencing their cost and supply chain strategies.

ARECOMS chairman Patrick Luabeya stated in a media interview that the current situation "no longer requires a full suspension of exports." He pointed out that the new quota system will, in the coming months, "complete the final adjustments needed for market rebalancing in the next few years." The policy's clear goal is to reduce global cobalt inventories to "about equivalent to one month of demand."

Market Rebalancing

The DRC government hopes to achieve its desired market balance with this new policy. Patrick Luabeya said: "We obviously hope cobalt prices can return to a level that not only ensures industry survival, but also secures sustainable development for this key industry of the energy transition."

However, some analysts warn that overly strict supply controls and persistently high prices could pose long-term risks. This could prompt battery manufacturers and automakers to accelerate research and shift to battery technologies that do not use cobalt, potentially weakening the DRC's strategic importance in the global cobalt market over the long term.

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