Considering the first dividend after listing, Japan's leading NAND company sees transaction volume exceed one trillion yen for two consecutive days.

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Multiple factors, including the AI-driven storage super cycle and anticipated first dividend, have jointly pushed Kioxia Holdings to the top of the Japanese stock market trading value rankings.

From April 8 to 9, Tokyo-listed Kioxia Holdings saw its trading value exceed one trillion yen for two consecutive days, recording 1.3596 trillion and 1.2867 trillion yen respectively, marking the first time a single stock reached this threshold in Japan. On April 9, its trading value was about 7.7 times that of SoftBank Group, which only recorded 167.7 billion yen that day.

There are two main catalysts driving the surge in trading value: first, the widespread adoption of AI leads to ongoing tight supply and demand of NAND storage chips; second, the company released a signal for its first dividend since listing. Meanwhile, short selling positions are accumulating rapidly, intensifying bullish and bearish divergence and increasing stock price volatility, further amplifying trading value.

Kioxia's stock price hit another record high during trading on April 9, with a year-to-date gain of 2.6 times and a cumulative increase of 6.3 times for full-year 2025. Today, the company saw another daily rise of over 7% in Tokyo trading.

Dividend Signal: From "Negative Retained Earnings" to "Stable Dividend"

Kioxia's Vice President in charge of finance, Yoshihiko Kawamura, told the media on April 8: "If I had to choose between share buybacks and dividends, I prefer dividends. We are discussing guidelines for stable dividends."

The company plans to formally outline its medium- and long-term capital allocation policy, including investment and shareholder returns, at its investor briefing in June.

This statement comes amid sharply improved performance. According to Kioxia's Q3 results for fiscal 2025 released in February, the company expects net profit for fiscal 2025 ending March to reach 459.7 to 519.7 billion yen, with 310 to 370 billion yen contributed in just the first three months of this year. QUICK analyst consensus further shows that Kioxia's consolidated net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 will reach 2.4105 trillion yen, four to five times the current level.

It is noteworthy that Kioxia's consolidated retained earnings as of the end of December 2025 remain negative 42.7 billion yen—a direct reason for its previous inability to pay dividends. As profits grow, expectations for positive retained earnings increase, building the financial foundation for dividends.

Supply and Demand Logic: Seller’s Market and Restrained Capital Expenditure

Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash technology, formerly Toshiba Memory. According to TrendForce and Omdia data, Kioxia currently ranks third in the global NAND market with a share of about 14–15%, trailing only Samsung (32–35%) and SK Hynix (19–22%).

Yoshihiko Kawamura said: "Due to insufficient supply, NAND is currently a seller’s market, and the company is advancing long-term contract negotiations with hyperscale cloud service providers for 2028 and 2029."

In terms of capital expenditure, Kioxia has chosen a relatively restrained pace. The company plans to invest about 400 billion yen in the coming year, up about 40% year-on-year but still below the historical peak of Q1 2023 (510 billion yen), mainly to upgrade existing production equipment for product replacement, rather than large-scale capacity expansion.

The market implication of this strategy is direct: restrained expansion means supply will not increase rapidly, helping to maintain the current tight supply-demand pattern.

Bull vs Bear: The Structure Behind Trading Value

The sharp fluctuations in Kioxia’s stock price have attracted intensive participation by individual investors and overseas short-term funds. Meanwhile, short selling positions have been accumulating rapidly—short selling margin balance on April 3 doubled versus March 27, with short position value estimated at 500 to 600 billion yen at current prices.

The divergence between bulls and bears is itself a structural reason for sustained trading value expansion: bulls bet on AI demand and dividend expectations, while bears remain wary of rapidly rising valuations. The interplay of both sides keeps turnover high.

Kioxia listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2024, having been spun off from Toshiba in 2018, and completed its listing under Bain Capital’s push. As Toshiba and Bain Capital gradually reduced their stakes, retail investors now account for more than half of Kioxia’s shareholders, which is one reason for active individual investor trading.

Institutions believe investor attention on Kioxia is likely to persist.

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