Crisis approaches; the El Niño phenomenon has already appeared in the Pacific region.

```

The El Niño phenomenon has officially formed in the equatorial Pacific. This climate event could evolve into the strongest ever recorded, posing a severe threat to global agriculture, energy supply, and community safety.

According to the latest confirmation from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), this El Niño is the first since 2023, and it is expected to intensify over the coming months and last at least until December this year. Its impacts were already evident before the official announcement—the Indian monsoon season was delayed and Peru’s fishing season was forced to be temporarily suspended.

This climate phenomenon, by heating Pacific seawater and disrupting global weather patterns, may cause widespread droughts, floods, and abnormal temperature fluctuations, thus impacting crop yields and increasing pressure on power grids, with far-reaching effects on commodity markets and the global economy.

Could Become a "Super El Niño", With Shocking Historical Losses

The intensity of El Niño depends on the extent to which the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature is above normal levels. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines an El Niño event as sea surface temperatures exceeding the long-term average by at least 0.5°C over five overlapping three-month periods; If the temperature anomaly reaches 2°C or above, it is classified as a "super" event, commonly known in the industry as "Super El Niño".

The possibility of this event developing into a "Super El Niño" is an issue of high concern among industry professionals and meteorological observers. JMA expects the event to reach the "super" level later this year.

Historical data reveals this climate phenomenon’s destructive potential. The strong El Niño event of 1997 caused at least 30,000 deaths and global economic losses of about $100 billion. According to Bloomberg, a 2023 Dartmouth College study estimates that El Niño’s long-tail effects can inflict trillions of dollars in losses worldwide.

Agriculture Hit First, Multiple Commodities Facing Production Pressure

For commodity markets, a strong El Niño has always been a major price disruption factor. According to Marex data, historically, strong El Niño events have significantly reduced the yields of palm oil, coffee, cocoa, cotton, as well as grains like wheat and rice.

Currently, related effects have already appeared in some regions. The delayed arrival of the Indian monsoon directly affects agricultural irrigation and food production in South Asia, while the temporary shutdown of Peru’s fisheries signals that marine ecosystems are under stress.

As El Niño peaks between December and January next year, its interference with global weather is expected to further spread and worsen. Parts of Australia face risks of drought and wildfires, while the southern United States may experience wetter and colder winters.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Suppressed, But Extreme Weather Risks Remain

El Niño’s impact on the Atlantic hurricane season is relatively complex. Atmospheric changes associated with this climate phenomenon usually increase wind shear in the Atlantic basin, thereby suppressing the formation and development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

However, this does not mean that the United States, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean can rest easy. Early forecasts from academic institutions, commercial forecasting agencies, and government departments generally indicate that the number of named storms in the Atlantic this year will be around 14, basically in line with the long-term average.

Overall, the formation of this El Niño marks a new cycle of rising global climate risks. For agricultural producers, energy companies, and commodity investors, the weather trajectory in the coming months will be a key variable affecting market pricing.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets are risky, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment decisions are made at your own risk. ```