Cross-border e-commerce Guangzhou-Foshan warehousing undergoes major changes

As a barometer for industry development, warehousing and logistics are often the first to sense changes in demand and most directly reflect the real temperature of industry and consumption.

CBRE's latest "2025 Guangzhou Real Estate Market Review" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") shows that, under the combined effects of policy stimulus, e-commerce structural adjustments, and deepening regional division of labor, the Guangzhou-Foshan warehousing and logistics market in 2025 has traced a development curve of "high supply, strong demand rebound, and continuous decline in rental prices." 

From the supply side, 2025 marks another supply peak for Guangzhou's warehousing and logistics market since 2023, with a total of 12 high-quality warehousing projects delivered throughout the year and a total new supply of about 930,000 square meters.

Impacted by the supply peak and the contraction of leasing area by cross-border e-commerce in Guangzhou, warehouse rents in Guangzhou accelerated downwards in 2025, falling by 7.6% year-on-year to 35.5 yuan per square meter per month by year-end.

The rental decline has driven tenants' upgrading and relocation demands, coupled with e-commerce warehousing demand boosted by national subsidy policies, resulting in Guangzhou's annual net absorption reaching 757,000 square meters, a significant rebound from the negative absorption recorded in 2024. However, throughout 2025, Guangzhou's warehouse and logistics vacancy rate rose by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 8.9% by year-end.

The Report shows that, among the main industries transacting, third-party logistics accounted for the highest proportion at 65%, notably the self-operated logistics of a certain e-commerce platform, which in 2025 leased several entire new warehouses. Additionally, a third-party logistics company in the apparel sector leveraged the significant rental decline caused by e-commerce exit to settle in Conghua. Pure e-commerce ranked second, accounting for 27%, with cross-border e-commerce leasing comprising 17% of total transactions.

At the same time, the regional adjustment of cross-border e-commerce is reshaping the division of labor in the Guangzhou-Foshan warehousing market. In 2025, cross-border e-commerce has reduced its leased area in Guangzhou but has not exited the Pearl River Delta; instead, it has significantly shifted to Foshan and other surrounding cities. This trend is particularly pronounced in the Foshan market.

The Report indicates that last year saw Foshan's new warehousing supply reach as high as 1.86 million square meters, a historic high; under the strong expansion of cross-border e-commerce, the net absorption volume also set a new record, with the vacancy rate falling instead of rising.

Different from Guangzhou, cross-border e-commerce in Foshan was more proactive in expanding rentals. Of all transactions recorded for the year, cross-border e-commerce accounted for 81%, demonstrating its consolidation on the western bank of the Pearl River, with expansion in Foshan and Zhaoqing but contraction in Guangzhou.

According to WallstreetCN, compared with Guangzhou, Foshan's advantages in rental level and large-scale park planning make it an ideal choice for cross-border e-commerce's large-scale consolidation and centralized operations.  

Data show that, driven by cross-border e-commerce, Foshan's warehousing market saw annual net absorption reach 1.68 million square meters, a 137% year-on-year increase and also a historic high, driving the city's vacancy rate down by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6% by year-end.  

It is worth noting that despite active transactions in the warehousing market, rents remain under pressure. Foshan's warehousing market rents fell 7.0% year-on-year in 2025, to 34.4 yuan per square meter per month by year-end.

CBRE points out that with massive supply, both cross-border and domestic e-commerce self-operated logistics have greater bargaining power. At the same time, rental levels in neighboring Guangzhou have also dropped significantly, further driving Foshan rents down.

Looking to 2026, both Guangzhou and Foshan will continue to see supply peaks, with an expected 2.64 million and 1.33 million square meters of new warehouse facilities completed, respectively, bringing pressure to market absorption and further room for rental reduction.

Deng Wei, Head of Industrial Real Estate Leasing Transactions for CBRE South China, said: "In 2026, guided by the national policy to focus more on expanding domestic demand, especially stimulating resident consumption, it is expected that measures such as a new round of national subsidies in Guangdong will drive another sales peak for eligible products, and in the short term will continue to be an important source for warehouse absorption in Guangzhou and Foshan. In addition, Guangzhou's new airport located in Gaoming, Foshan, has officially received approval from the National Development and Reform Commission, speeding up construction progress and benefiting the development of the local warehousing market."

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