Crude oil impact "schedule": Asia already feels the pressure, Africa in early April, Europe in mid-April

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The global oil supply is facing a shock wave rolling from east to west, and the pace of this shock is determined by shipping times.

According to a research report by JPMorgan analysts on March 26, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been hampered over the past four weeks, resulting in a "sequential" shock to global supply—starting from Asia, moving through Africa, then Europe, and eventually affecting the United States, with most regions under concentrated pressure in April.

The global oil system is shifting from a "flow shock" to an "inventory depletion problem." The timeline, rather than simple supply volume, has become the core variable driving market impact. Brent crude has risen 49% this month, closing at $108.01 per barrel on Thursday.

Meanwhile, after the market closed on Thursday, Trump announced an extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6. According to Xinhua, Trump wrote on social media on Thursday, the 26th, that the airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities would be postponed for another ten days, until 8:00 pm EST on April 6.

In a client report, Macquarie commodity strategists wrote that the market "still expects Trump to announce victory soon," but also gave a roughly 40% probability scenario: if the conflict extends to June, oil prices could hit $200 per barrel, and the US retail gasoline price could jump to about $7 per gallon.

Asia hit first, inventory buffer near its limit

JPMorgan analysts pointed out that Asia is highly dependent on crude and refined products from the Persian Gulf and is already "feeling the pressure"—shipments dispatched before the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have largely been depleted. Shipping time from the Persian Gulf to Asia is about 10 to 20 days, with India affected first, followed by Northeast Asia.

Data shows the shock will intensify rapidly over time. JPMorgan estimates that in April, Southeast Asia’s oil demand loss will be about 300,000 barrels per day; if inventory releases are limited to domestic markets, losses could quickly exceed 2 million barrels per day in May and approach 3 million barrels per day in June.

The Philippine government has already declared a state of national energy emergency this week, stating that the Middle East conflict poses an "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.

Africa pressured in early April, Europe in mid-April, limited risk of direct shortage for the US

According to JPMorgan’s timeline, Africa will be the next region to be hit, with effects expected to appear in early April. If inland inventories are low, oil demand losses could reach up to 250,000 barrels per day in April.

Europe is expected to feel the shock in mid-April, but JPMorgan analysts point out that the pressure in Europe is "mainly due to rising costs and competition with Asia, rather than a direct physical shortage."

Because of longer shipping times, most oil cargoes are expected to stop arriving in the US around April 15. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that, owing to the country’s vast domestic crude production capacity, the US is unlikely to face a direct physical shortage in the near term.

The main impact on the US will be reflected in rising prices and "misalignment" in the refined oil market. US benchmark crude has risen 41% this month, but still trades about $10 below global benchmark Brent crude.

Macquarie strategists raised their year-end forecast for Brent crude to $89 per barrel and interpreted the Brent futures curve—from around $110 down to the $80 range—as the market pricing in a short-term end to the conflict.

However, the firm also warned that there is about a 40% probability the conflict could last until June. If this scenario materializes, oil surging to $200 per barrel and US gasoline at $7 per gallon would no longer be just theoretical assumptions, but would deliver a real shock to global inflation expectations and consumer confidence.

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