Cryptocurrencies rose against the market on Friday; analysts say Bitcoin is nearing the historical bear market bottom range.

Bitcoin has fallen by nearly half since last October. Strong>Crypto fund managers who have experienced the previous three bull and bear cycles say a set of indicators that have often marked market bottoms in the past suggest that this sell-off may be entering its final stage. Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital uses four indicators to judge Bitcoin's position in this cycle's downturn. One indicator has already entered the range corresponding to market lows in previous cycles. Two other indicators are centered around $54,000 to $58,000, still below Bitcoin's current price of about $73,800. In February this year, Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000 and then rebounded significantly, which means it has already touched the upper edge of Munster's potential bottom range. The gap between the current price and the range where these indicators are fully triggered seems, on the surface, to warrant caution. But Munster disagrees, arguing that in the last bear market, for long-term holders, the difference between buying at $19,000 and catching the final bottom of $15,600 was negligible. While market bottoms are not guaranteed, Munster says: "Most of the decline may already be over, and the risk-reward asymmetry is improving. The market may see a turning point around mid-year." On Friday, Bitcoin once rose 5% to about $73,800, but its gains narrowed as US stocks turned lower during the session. Still, digital currencies outperformed the US stock market and gold and silver. The indicator that has already signaled is the so-called MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin's trading price relative to its on-chain cost basis. When the indicator falls below 0.4, Bitcoin is usually undervalued. Currently, the indicator is about 0.38. Other indicators have not yet reached their respective levels. They include: Realized Price, the average price at which each Bitcoin was last moved on-chain, currently around $54,000. 200-week moving average (an important support level in past cycles), currently about $58,000. Another observed pattern is the shrinking magnitude of price drops from peak to trough, which is often seen as a sign of the asset class maturing as liquidity and participation increase. This pattern suggests a potential bottom between $45,000 and $55,000. Taken together, these four indicators point to what Munster calls a "high probability accumulation zone," roughly between $45,000 and $60,000. Even if selling pressure lessens, the market still needs new demand for a sustained recovery, and there are already some signs of capital returning. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, after months of outflows, are again seeing inflows. According to media data, inflows over the past month—including iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF (HODL)—have totaled more than $1.6 billion. On this, Munster says, "Once selling pressure eases, even moderate new inflows can be enough to drive the market higher." It's also worth noting that some analysts point out Bitcoin has recently acted as a "barometer" for geopolitical tensions. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks; investing requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investments based on this article are at your own risk.