Dalio: Huge changes will occur in the next 5 years, after which the world will be unrecognizable.

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Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio warns that the United States is entering a period of "great turmoil," with multiple structural forces combining to profoundly reshape both the country and the world in the next five years.

On a podcast by The New York Times on the 7th, Dalio stated that the large fiscal deficit, widening wealth gap, political polarization between left and right, restructuring of the geopolitical landscape, and disruptive impacts brought by artificial intelligence will together drive the formation of this turbulent situation.

"All these forces are converging, and there will be tremendous changes in the next five years," he said. "After that,the world will be almost unrecognizable, with dramatic changes; it will be an era full of upheaval and intense turbulence."

For investors, Dalio suggests allocating 5% to 15% of portfolios to gold, citing historical patterns showing that during similar turbulent periods, all fiat currencies depreciate while gold rises.

Political conflicts may intensify after the midterm elections

Dalio expressed deep concern for the stability of American society and its political system, explicitly mentioning the potential risk of violent conflict.

He predicts that the Republican Party may lose control of the House in the midterm elections, which will become a turning point for intensifying political and social tensions. "From that moment on, you'll see the intensity of political and social conflict rising, especially in the period between that election and the 2028 presidential election."

On the international front, Dalio believes the rules-based international order has disappeared. He describes the direction of the US-Iran war as an almost "black-or-white" choice—the core is who will control the Strait of Hormuz and who will control nuclear materials. This judgment means that geopolitical risk has evolved from ambiguous games to more direct strategic confrontation.

Gold becomes the first choice in troubled times; diversified allocation is the way to cope

In response to these risks, Dalio provided clear asset allocation advice: maintain a highly diversified portfolio and keep gold holdings between 5% and 15%. He cited historical experience, noting that every time such turmoil occurs, fiat currencies invariably weaken, while gold plays a central role as a store of value.

At the same time, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, also issued a warning, saying that the world is facing a "large-scale geopolitical restructuring." This trend will lead to a rise in the status of blue-collar workers, while the white-collar group will face greater pressure. The simultaneous warnings by two industry heavyweights further highlight the market's heightened attention to macro uncertainties.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment goals, financial situations, or needs of specific users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Proceeding to invest based on this is at your own risk. ```