Danger Signals for AI: Growth of Paid ChatGPT Users in Europe May Have Stalled!

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Author: Dong Jing

Source: Hard AI

ChatGPT, the flagship product of the AI industry, is facing a critical challenge: the growth of paid users in Europe may have stopped, revealing a major signal: the monetization capabilities of AI are being tested.

On October 17, according to Hard AI, Deutsche Bank stated in its latest research report that consumer spending on ChatGPT in the European market has almost come to a halt since May of this year, suggesting that the "flagship product" of the AI wave may have reached its peak in attracting new paid users.

Although Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, announced last week that ChatGPT now has more than 800 million weekly active users, Deutsche Bank pointed out that the growth of its paying users has significantly slowed, and its revenue growth is still far behind that of streaming platforms such as Spotify and Netflix.

The report states that while OpenAI's valuation is as high as $500 billion—close to Netflix's market value—its revenue scale and number of paid subscribers still lag far behind. This reveals the core contradiction currently faced by the AI industry: the huge gap between technological influence and commercial profitability.

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said: "AI will undoubtedly change the world and improve productivity, but the path to profitability remains unclear. The real challenge lies not in the algorithm, but in the business model."

Weakening Growth Signals in the European Market

According to tracking data from Deutsche Bank's dbDataInsights team on the five major European markets—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK—the monthly growth rate of consumer spending on ChatGPT has significantly slowed since May 2025.

It is worth noting that there were also similar seasonal downturns in July and August 2024 (attributed at the time to decreased use by student users during summer break), but growth was strong in June of that year and there was a substantial rebound in September.

In contrast, the performance in these two months of 2025 was flat, failing to replicate last year’s growth momentum.

Analysis suggests that this difference indicates the current stagnation in growth is likely not just a simple seasonal fluctuation. Although the data covers only some European markets and not the whole world, and there may still be data volatility, this trend is undoubtedly worth close attention.

The Huge Gap Between Valuation and Revenue

Deutsche Bank's comparative analysis highlights the significant disparity between OpenAI's valuation and its actual business scale. The report states,

Netflix's market value is equivalent to OpenAI's projected $500 billion valuation, but it has over 300 million global subscribers and estimated annual revenue of $45 billion in 2025, with a sales-to-price ratio of 12.5 times.Music streaming platform Spotify has a market value of $144 billion, 276 million subscribers, and projected annual revenue over $17 billion, with a sales-to-price ratio of 7.3 times.

In contrast, according to data released by OpenAI in April this year, its global number of paid subscribers is only about 20 million—a figure that is significantly out of proportion to its valuation.

Deutsche Bank points out that even though OpenAI's user growth is amazing (weekly active users increased from 500 million at the end of March to 800 million), "how to convert massive traffic into sustained paid subscribers" remains the biggest challenge for commercialization.

The report states that the initial growth of AI tools is often driven by curiosity and the viral effect of free users, but in the paid phase, retention rate and ongoing value will determine the commercial ceiling of the platform.

Investors are closely watching OpenAI’s upcoming revenue disclosure cycles. Deutsche Bank believes that if paid user growth continues to stagnate, the valuation system of the AI industry may come under correction pressure.

This article is from WeChat public account "Hard AI". For more cutting-edge AI news, please go here.

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