Decode US Dollar Liquidity: Tangtu Macro's Cheng Tan unveils the underlying logic of global asset pricing
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Macroeconomic research has always been a field that investors both "love and hate".
Those who subscribe to it believe that understanding macro trends is essential to grasping the main thread of an era. In capital markets, truly significant opportunities often stem from correctly judging the direction of the tides. Only by standing on the side of the trend can returns be amplified—even a "pig" can take flight if it’s caught in the tailwind.
Critics, on the other hand, argue that macro is too broad and too abstract. The changes in monetary/fiscal policies from across the ocean seem far removed from their own account returns. Instead of spending a lot of time on these "out of touch" issues, it's better to focus energy on selecting individual stocks and specific assets.
Over the past decade or so, these two viewpoints have been in constant debate.
But since 2020, the market environment has started to change significantly.
Macro factors are no longer just “background variables”, but increasingly directly influence asset pricing and market rhythm. The weight of macro trading continues to rise. The starting point of many rallies no longer comes from industry logic or company fundamentals, but from changes in policy and liquidity.
The deeper reason behind this is that the policy thinking of major economies globally is shifting—Western governments are gradually moving away from emphasizing the "small government" model of a free market toward a more actively interventionist "big government" model. Faced with economic downturns and market volatility, policymakers’ tolerance has significantly decreased; fiscal and monetary policies are used more frequently to stabilize growth and underpin the markets.
The direct effect of this is: the relationship between macro variables and market trends has become more complex.
Take the market in the second half of 2025 as an example. From a micro perspective, the fundamentals didn’t support a "comprehensive bull market": global economic growth was still slowing; corporate profit improvement wasn’t significant; geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainties persisted.
Yet the market moved to a different rhythm—from U.S. stocks to emerging market equities, from commodities to some high-risk assets, nearly all saw a marked rise at the same time. Differentiation among assets was quickly compressed; overall risk appetite rose, showing a pattern of "synchronized expansion".
Many investors’ intuitive feeling at the time was: it seemed like all assets were rising, but it was difficult to say why.
Using a traditional fundamental framework, it’s hard to explain this phenomenon. Industry logic, corporate profits, regional differences did not improve simultaneously.
But from a macro and liquidity perspective, it all becomes easier to understand: At the time, under the constraints of growth pressure and financial stability goals, the policy stances of major economies began to loosen at the margin; the U.S. dollar liquidity environment improved temporarily, global funding costs fell; meanwhile, balance sheet expansions by key financial intermediaries amplified the cross-market transmission efficiency of funds.
The result: funds didn’t "selectively" enter one type of asset, but repriced risk assets more quickly and across a broader range.
In such an environment, it’s hard to explain sources of return with a single sector or stock logic. What truly dominates is a higher-level variable—the change of liquidity within the financial system.
This was also a common confusion among many investors in that phase: Clearly, they didn't catch a specific "certain sector", but as long as they were present, they gained returns; if macro environment changes are ignored, even with no obvious mistakes in stock selection, portfolio performance can be noticeably lagging.
This case reflects an increasingly important reality: In certain stages, the market is not driven by "bottom-up" fundamentals, but is uniformly priced by "top-down" macro liquidity. Understanding this often determines whether you move with the trend or fight against it.
But we must admit: If our macro understanding only stays at the surface indicators like GDP, inflation, or non-farm payrolls, we can easily fall into a dilemma: the more data we see, the harder it gets to understand the market. Because what truly influences market rhythm is often not surface data itself, but deeper operating mechanisms:
How is dollar liquidity generated?
How are funds transmitted through the financial system?
How is liquidity redistributed among different markets?
—This set of mechanisms determines the flow of capital and deeply affects asset pricing logic. Only by understanding it can one truly see how macro influences investing.
To answer these questions, Wallstreetcn has specially invited Cheng Tan, founder of "Tantu Macro", to deliver a new masterclass titled “Reading Global Asset Pricing from Dollar Liquidity” on April 25, 2026 (Saturday) in Shanghai.
Dr. Cheng Tan graduated from the Finance Department of Guanghua School of Management at Peking University. He worked for a decade at the Central Foreign Exchange Business Center of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, participating long-term in global asset allocation and tactical operations of foreign exchange reserves. This is where huge foreign exchange assets are managed, making it one of the important participants in the global liquidity system.
Contrary to what many imagine, SAFE’s investment isn’t simple passive allocation, but high-intensity active management. Stocks, bonds, FX—multi-asset linkage. If judgment slips, the performance pressure is immediate.
In such an environment, macro research is never about “writing reports”, but constantly answering a series of real-world questions:
- Is the trend truly established?
- Is the inflection point approaching?
- Is noise disrupting judgment?
Later Cheng Tan summarized the role of macro research in twelve characters:
Grasping trends, Judging inflection points, Eliminating noise—this methodology is tested by long-term real market practice.
Of course, we must also be frank: This course is not suitable for all investors.
For most investors, understanding an industry or a company’s fundamentals is often a more direct and efficient path.
But if you hope, over longer investment cycles, to seize the market’s core variables; if you want to understand the transmission logic behind global asset prices, and not remain at superficial phenomena, then this relatively hard-core, deep-paced course may be worth your serious time investment.
While working with Dr. Cheng Tan on the course, we also made a tough decision: to actively forgo a "comprehensive" approach, and focus the content on deeper, if duller, financial operating mechanisms.
Because we increasingly realize: Macroeconomic policy, financial system structure, and household balance sheets are essentially an interconnected set of systems. If you ignore the structure of financial intermediaries and liquidity transmission paths, and only rely on aggregate indicators to judge the trend, it's easy to misread the market.
We hope, through this course, to help you build a practical liquidity analysis framework.
Not just a pile of scattered knowledge points, but a complete system from concepts to tools, mechanisms to case studies.
What you ultimately gain is not just knowledge itself, but two more important capabilities: the ability to grasp macro narratives from the top down, and the ability to verify liquidity details from the bottom up.
In a market environment where uncertainty is the norm, we hope this framework becomes a set of basic tools for you to understand asset pricing.
If you hope not to be led by emotions, not to stay at the opinion level, and truly understand the underlying logic of market operation, then perhaps this course can provide you with a systematic starting point.
The course includes one hour of interactive Q&A, where students can discuss their most pressing questions face-to-face with Dr. Cheng Tan. If you are interested, you can click the image above to sign up. If you want more course details, feel free to scan the image below and consult the course assistant.
Risk Notice and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable to their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```