Demand concerns ease, iPhone 18 series pre-order delivery time extended

Pre-order delivery times for the iPhone 18 Pro series saw a significant expansion in the middle of the first week of sales, roughly in line with the same period last year, as concerns about weak demand subsided.

According to a product availability tracking report released by JPMorgan Chase on September 17, the global average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max expanded by 12 days and 7 days respectively from the first day of pre-orders on September 12 to the mid-week checkpoint on September 16. The delivery time for the Pro Max is now on par with the iPhone 17 cycle last year, and the gap for the Pro models has also narrowed significantly.

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee believes that the shorter first-week delivery time reflects the initial stockpiling of high-end models rather than a sign of weak demand. The subsequent expansion of delivery time is consistent with the pace of demand digesting inventory.

Apple's stock price closed at $332.41 on September 16, and JPMorgan Chase maintained its "overweight" rating.

Delivery time expansion exceeds that of the same period last year

According to JPMorgan data, the delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max increased by 12 days and 7 days respectively in the four days following the first day of pre-orders, significantly exceeding the 5 days and 2 days increase for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max during the same period last year.

In absolute terms, as of the midweek inspection point on September 16, the global average home delivery time for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max was 19 days and 26 days respectively, while the corresponding figures for the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max in the same period last year were 20 days and 26 days respectively, which is basically the same.

Furthermore, the significant differences in delivery times between different color versions during the early pre-orders have largely disappeared. Previously in the US, colors such as Glacier, Silver, and Black Pro were available on the official release date of September 18, while other colors required a longer wait; as of midweek, all colors reported the same delivery window in every market tracked by JPMorgan.

Both the US and Europe slightly outperformed the same period last year.

In the US market, the delivery times for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are 17 days and 24 days respectively, higher than the 2 days and 22 days on the first day of pre-orders, and slightly higher than the 16 days and 23 days for the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max during the same period last year. The US accounts for approximately 34% of global iPhone shipments. Regarding in-store pickup, all colors of the 18 Pro can be picked up in stores on September 18th, the release day, while the 18 Pro Max does not currently offer in-store pickup.

In Europe, delivery times for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max in Germany have risen to 18 days and 25 days respectively, up from 16 days and 24 days in the same period last year, showing a slight lead. In the UK, delivery times for the two models are 17 days and 24 days respectively, on par with the same period last year. Germany and the UK account for approximately 3% and 4% of global iPhone shipments, respectively.

The Chinese market remains the largest year-on-year gap.

The Chinese market currently shows the most significant year-over-year disparity among all tracked regions. As of September 16 , the delivery times for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max in China were 25 days and 29 days, respectively. While this represents an improvement from the 13 days and 21 days on the first day of pre-orders, it is still significantly lower than the 32 days each for the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max during the same period last year.

Regarding in-store pickup, neither the iPhone 18 Pro nor the iPhone 18 Pro Max can be picked up in stores in the Chinese market. China accounts for approximately 19% of global iPhone shipments. JPMorgan Chase points out that the year-over-year gap in the Chinese market has narrowed compared to the first week, but it remains a major concern in current demand tracking.

iPhone Duo is expected to begin pre-orders on October 16.

JPMorgan Chase mentioned in its report that the Duo model in the iPhone 18 series will begin pre-orders on October 16th, and is not yet included in this delivery date tracking. The current delivery date data primarily reflects market demand for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max models.

JPMorgan Chase stated that it will continue to track delivery time data in various regions to assess the overall demand trend for the iPhone 18 series.

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