Desperate Besant! The U.S. has almost no strategic oil reserves left to use!

Desperate Besant! The U.S. has almost no strategic oil reserves left to use!

```

US Treasury Secretary Besenth claims that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) can be used again to suppress oil prices, but the reality is far more complicated than this statement—reserve levels are already close to the legal minimum, and the physical safety bottom line makes further releases extremely limited.

Besenth stated last week that the US participated in the largest international coordinated SPR release to date, totaling 400 million barrels, and warned that if necessary, the US could unilaterally release reserves again to stabilize oil prices.

However, according to Bloomberg reports and official SPR website data, the actual available space in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is extremely limited. The buffer between current reserves and the legal minimum will be almost depleted after completing the current planned releases, while geological engineering limitations impose an even harder bottom line.

Besenth’s tough stance may in fact reflect the growing scarcity of policy options. Yesterday, Besenth also stated that Iranian oil has been allowed to keep flowing out of the Gulf region, and that sanctions on offshore Iranian oil may be lifted within the next few days.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve consists of four underground salt cavern sites in Louisiana and Texas, with a maximum design capacity of about 715 million barrels, enough to cover more than a month of US oil consumption.

However, after multiple rounds of releases, reserve levels have shrunk significantly. According to SPR website data from March 13, currently there are about 155 million barrels of light crude oil and about 261 million barrels of heavy crude oil, totaling around 416 million barrels. This is partly due to the Biden administration's order to release 180 million barrels after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022, and thereafter refilling progress has been slow.

The Trump administration has announced the release of 172 million barrels under the international coordination framework. Once the plan is carried out, SPR reserves will drop to about 244 million barrels. The issue is that US law clearly states that when salt cavern reserves fall below 252 million barrels, the government may not continue to draw from the reserve. In other words, after this round of releases, reserves will directly drop below the legal minimum.

In theory, the government could declare an energy emergency, or push Congress to amend the relevant laws. But critics point out that rising gasoline prices do not constitute a "serious energy shortage" legally, so these paths face significant obstacles.

Physical Limits: Structural Constraints of Salt Caverns, Release Space Only 80–90 Million Barrels

Even if legal obstacles are bypassed, physical engineering constraints cannot be ignored—and are much harder to deal with than legislative procedures.

According to previous Bloomberg reports, this salt cavern system, built in the 1970s, was originally designed for a lifespan of only 25 years and to withstand only five complete injection and extraction cycles. SPR former project manager William "Hoot" Gibson stated that the higher the frequency of use, the greater the risk of dissolution and collapse of the salt caverns.

According to Bloomberg's Alphaville statistics, since SPR was established in 1977, there have been nine releases—far more than initially designed. This means a minimum oil volume must be maintained in the caverns to prevent structural damage.

J.P. Morgan energy analysts pointed out last week that SPR has a practical operational safety bottom line of about 150–160 million barrels; dropping below this level threatens the stability of the caverns and system flexibility, including some "roof oil" that cannot be extracted.

Combining these two constraints, the actual space Besenth can mobilize is extremely limited.

After the current release of 172 million barrels, SPR reserves will drop to about 244 million barrels, which is already below the legal minimum of 252 million barrels. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan estimates a physical safety bottom line of about 150–160 million barrels.

The difference between the two—theoretically, the extra oil that can still be released—is only about 80–90 million barrels, and this figure is already based on declaring an emergency or legal amendments.

More importantly, if reserve levels approach the physical safety bottom line, market fears of reserve exhaustion could actually increase oil price volatility, contrary to stabilization intentions. As history shows, the closer a policy tool is to its limit, the more its signaling effect can backfire—conveying despair rather than control.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the specific investment goals, financial situations or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Invest at your own risk. ```