Detailed analysis of the US data center boom: 45GW, $2.5 trillion investment—who is building, and who is paying?

Detailed analysis of the US data center boom: 45GW, $2.5 trillion investment—who is building, and who is paying?

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An infrastructure race driven by artificial intelligence is unfolding across the United States.

According to Wind Chaser Trading Desk, a Barclays research report dated October 31 shows that large-scale data center projects currently planned in the U.S. have a total capacity of over 45 GW (gigawatts), and this construction boom is expected to attract over $2.5 trillion in investment.

The report makes it clear that the main drivers of this expansion are OpenAI's Stargate project, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Elon Musk's xAI. To train and run increasingly complex AI models, these companies are planning and building compute clusters at unprecedented speed.

This is not just a compute arms race among tech giants, but also poses an unprecedented challenge to America's power infrastructure. Soaring electricity demand is crashing into the U.S. grid's "power wall." Grid capacity constraints, approval delays, and supply limitations are forcing these tech giants to adopt a "Bring-Your-Own-Power" strategy.

Led by Giants: Stargate, Hyperscalers, and xAI Dominate Construction

According to Barclays’ tracking, a handful of tech giants are at the core of this 45 GW construction frenzy.

  • OpenAI and the Stargate Project: This project plans to achieve a target of 10 GW and $500 billion investment by the end of 2025. Currently, about 7 GW of capacity has been committed, distributed in Texas, Wisconsin, and other locations, with partners including Oracle, SoftBank, and data center developers Vantage, Crusoe, etc.
  • Meta: Advancing multiple “Titan clusters,” including the 1 GW Prometheus project in Ohio and the Hyperion project in Louisiana, which plans to expand to 5 GW.
  • Amazon: Added 3.8 GW of capacity worldwide in the past 12 months, and expects capacity to double again by 2027. Based on this, Barclays estimates Amazon could add about 13 GW of capacity in the U.S. alone between 2026 and 2027.
  • Microsoft: Building a 900 MW AI plant in Wisconsin and has planned several similar projects in other parts of the U.S.
  • xAI: Expanding its data center in Memphis, Tennessee to 1.4 GW, used to train its Grok model.

The cost of this investment boom is extremely high. Report data shows that the construction cost of data centers (excluding IT equipment) has exceeded $17 million per MW. Take OpenAI’s Stargate project for example: its 7 GW capacity corresponds to over $400 billion in investment commitments, with a unit cost of up to $57 million per MW (including IT equipment), highlighting the huge capital density of AI infrastructure.

“Power Wall” Pressure: Grid Bottlenecks Foster the Self-Built Power Plant Model

Grid limitations are the most severe challenge currently facing data center construction. Barclays’ report emphasizes that even when grid access is approved, project parties still prefer to build on-site power generation facilities to accelerate "power-on time" and ensure power reliability.

A typical example is the Stargate 1 project: even though it has secured 1.2 GW grid access approval, the project still plans to deploy about 350 MW of on-site natural gas power generation capacity. The report notes that this move is aimed at "accelerating the project’s power-on schedule" and replacing diesel with natural gas as long-term backup power.

To respond to the millisecond-level power fluctuations brought by AI workloads, the industry is adopting "all-around solutions." For instance, Meta’s Prometheus project uses a mix of gas turbines, gas engines, and diesel engines to provide base power, handle power fluctuations, and for emergency startups, respectively. Such complex electric power solutions are becoming an industry trend.

Who’s Paying: The Capital and Costs Behind Trillion-Dollar Investments

Behind these huge investments are complex financing structures and steadily rising costs. Beyond the tech giants’ own capital expenditures, private equity firms and specialized infrastructure funds play a key role. For example, Blue Owl Capital and Crusoe formed a $15 billion joint venture to fund the Stargate 1 project.

Meanwhile, the “Energy as a Service” (EaaS) model is on the rise. Energy companies such as Williams are signing long-term power purchase agreements with data center operators and investing billions of dollars to build and operate dedicated power generation facilities for them.

Williams invested $2 billion in Meta's Prometheus project and signed a similar $3.1 billion contract with another major client. This indicates that data center operators prefer to outsource the development and operation of energy assets to professional companies.

Supply Chain Challenges: Equipment Delivery and Labor Shortages Loom

Explosive demand growth is putting enormous pressure on the power equipment supply chain. The Barclays report cites a document stating that due to strong market demand, the price of heavy gas turbines has risen by 50% within less than two years, with significantly longer delivery cycles. Equipment manufacturers such as GE Vernova and Caterpillar are increasing capacity, but still face constraints due to shortages of parts and labor.

The report also mentions that some companies are circumventing long order queues by buying used or “in-box” new equipment. For example, Fermi America acquired a Siemens gas turbine unused from a liquefied natural gas project to secure valuable generation for its data center.

 

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