Deutsche Bank significantly raises humanoid robot shipment forecast: doubling to 50,000 units in 2026, aiming for 7 million units by 2050.

Deutsche Bank has significantly raised its global shipment forecast for the humanoid robot market, increasing the 2026 estimate from the previous 2025 baseline of 17,500 units to nearly 50,000 units—more than doubling the growth rate—and expects global shipments to reach 7 million units by 2050.

Iris Zheng, Head of Asia-Pacific Automation & Industrial Research at Deutsche Bank, released a report on Monday stating that accelerated mass production by Chinese manufacturers combined with Tesla’s push for large-scale manufacturing has catalyzed the market, which now shows clear signs of scaling up. Accordingly, her team has raised their global market forecasts for 2026–2029: global shipments in 2026 are expected to approach 50,000 units, rising further to about 700,500 units in 2030, and reaching an ambitious target of 7 million units in 2050.

China is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest market in the foreseeable future, with shipments in 2026 projected to double to about 40,000 units. Iris Zheng pointed out that Chinese vendors are accelerating scale-up, driven by three factors: improved price accessibility, aggressive sales strategies, and IPO expansion plans, with Unitree emerging as a leading player. By contrast, the US market’s shipment growth is expected to progress gradually over a longer cycle.

This outlook echoes Goldman Sachs’ recent stance. Last month, Goldman Sachs Asia Trading Desk noted that the next phase in AI development is shifting from chips to real-world deployment, and humanoid robots are the clearest monetization frontier. Structural tailwinds from labor shortages and the need for automation are accelerating adoption in the industry, prompting investors to rotate funds into robot-related companies in South Korea, Japan, and China.

Forecast Upgraded Significantly: Increasing Signs of Industrial Scaling

In the report, Iris Zheng stated that the humanoid robot market is transitioning from the hype phase into an early scaled commercialization phase, directly driving this round of forecast upgrades. Deutsche Bank’s latest forecast raises the global shipment target for 2026 to nearly 50,000 units, more than double the previous 2025 estimate of 17,500 units; the 2030 shipment target jumps to about 700,500 units; and by 2050, the long-term market goal is 7 million units.

Behind this scaling process is the continuous penetration of humanoid robots into diverse scenarios such as household cleaning, factory goods sorting, road and airspace navigation, and even military applications. Iris Zheng believes that the capabilities of large models are extending from desktop and mobile terminals to physical machines capable of operating independently in the real world, and the scaling-up phase of physical AI has entered a critical window.

Regionally, China is the core driver of this round of shipment growth. Deutsche Bank expects Chinese shipments in 2026 to double to about 40,000 units, accounting for the vast majority of the global forecasted total.

Iris Zheng attributes this growth to three factors: the continued decline in humanoid robot prices has greatly increased accessibility; leading vendors employ aggressive sales strategies to rapidly gain market share; and numerous companies are expanding capacity using IPOs as opportunities. In this landscape, Unitree stands out as a top industry player. Growth in US shipments is expected to be more moderate and will advance gradually over time.

Goldman Sachs adopts a similar logic in its long-term investment themes, holding that, as structural demand is unleashed at a faster pace, Asia’s robot-related targets remain attractively valued amid stronger growth momentum: "This is an early-cycle opportunity to establish positions ahead of years-long capital rotation into the robotics ecosystem." Currently, the performance of Goldman Sachs Asia Humanoid Robot Basket (GSXACHUM) still has considerable catching up to do compared to the Asia Power Basket (GSXAPOWG).

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