Diesel fuel hits a record $6.51; Republican leaders collectively pressure for an export ban: internal party divisions limit its implementation to only 35%.

Pressure is mounting rapidly within the Republican Party. As U.S. diesel prices soar to record highs, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states are publicly demanding that the Trump administration ban diesel exports to alleviate fuel cost pressures on farmers and truck drivers.

On Monday, U.S. retail diesel prices rose to a record high of $6.51 per gallon, more than 70% higher than before the start of the war with Iran in February.

Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley directly urged Trump to halt diesel exports on the social media platform X, writing in all capital letters:

High diesel prices are killing farmers' incomes.

Several Iowa congressmen followed suit on the same day, demanding that the White House "stop the bleeding" with measures including an export ban, the repeal of the fuel tax, and financial support for affected businesses.

The White House has explicitly rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, "The government is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions," citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum's position—that an export ban might be considered if it could indeed lower prices, "but that is not the case."

Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy predicts that there is a 35% chance that the White House will implement an export ban.

The legislative action is beginning to take shape.

At the parliamentary level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements to concrete legislative actions.

U.S. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee has introduced two pieces of legislation: one is to immediately ban diesel exports until January 2027; the other is to set a price trigger mechanism that would automatically initiate the ban when the national average diesel price exceeds $5 per gallon and continue until the price falls below $4.50.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week that he was open to "exploring" export ban proposals. He said:

If we have sufficient domestic supply but are exporting, that might be one way to solve the problem.

Representative Ashley Hinson called for using "all available options," including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program. Representative Zach Nunn's demands were more direct:

Prioritize selling American energy to Americans.

The oil industry strongly opposes

The U.S. oil industry strongly resisted the export ban and countered it from the perspective of supply chain structure.

American Petroleum Institute (API) CEO Mike Sommers warned:

Restricting U.S. diesel exports will only worsen the problem, for consumers, farmers, and the overall U.S. economy.

Sommers points out that U.S. diesel production is mainly concentrated in the Gulf Coast region, where refining capacity exceeds local consumption demand, but infrastructure constraints mean that other parts of the U.S. still rely on imports.

He wrote in a social media post:

The United States supplies approximately 1.5 million barrels of diesel per day, accounting for about 20% of the global seaborne diesel trade of 8 million barrels. If nearly 20% of the supply were removed, global prices could rise, directly impacting the U.S. domestic region, which relies on imported diesel.

Burchett countered by accusing the oil industry of "profiteering" by "choosing to sell diesel to Europe at higher prices," and stressed that shipping U.S. diesel overseas directly squeezes domestic supply.

The risks of policy shift should not be ignored.

Despite the White House’s clear official stance, the market remains highly vigilant about the risk of a policy shift.

Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy and former advisor to the George W. Bush administration, stated:

The government has consistently rejected the export ban, but there are concerns that the president may change his mind at any time.

McNally said:

I've seen it firsthand in the White House. When you're surrounded by enemies, principles are thrown aside, and people become reckless.

The last time the United States imposed export controls on petroleum products was during the energy crisis of the 1970s. After the full-blown conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, then-President Biden asked the Department of Energy to explore the possibility of restricting exports of refined products, but ultimately no action was taken.

Currently, the approaching midterm elections and the continued rise in oil prices are pushing this policy choice to a new critical point.

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