Director of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office: Tariff rulings may increase the federal deficit by $1.1 trillion over 10 years

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The Director of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that a series of recent changes in tariff policy may cumulatively increase the federal budget deficit by about $1.1 trillion over the next decade, but due to uncertainty surrounding policy direction, precise calculations are not yet possible.

According to Bloomberg, CBO Director Phillip Swagel said on Monday that a Supreme Court ruling depriving Trump of the power to impose tariffs unilaterally through emergency economic authority will increase the ten-year deficit by $2 trillion.

However, the tariff revenue Trump has made up so far through other trade measures amounts to only $800 billion to $900 billion, resulting in a net effect of a roughly $1.1 trillion increase in the deficit over ten years.

Swagel also pointed out that the shock from rising energy prices caused by the Iran war is largely offsetting the economic boost from the 2025 tax cut bill, further complicating comprehensive assessments of the US economic outlook.

“It appears the impact of rising energy prices on households roughly offsets the benefits brought by the tax cuts. Of course, there are also effects on business investment and inflation—all these factors are intertwined. We have not yet carried out the next budget update, so no economic forecasts supporting these judgments have been made.”

For investors concerned about US Treasury supply and long-term interest rate trends, this figure provides new and important reference.

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