Don't rush to worry about unemployment—humanoid robots are still several years away from fully "taking over" jobs.
The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, but there is still a long way to go before they truly shake up the labor market.
Recently, a series of videos released by AI robot company Figure has attracted widespread attention. In the footage, its humanoid robot sorts packages continuously for nine days, prompting new speculation about the timetable for machines replacing humans.
However, in another video released at the same time, a human worker’s sorting efficiency still exceeds that of Figure’s robot team. Figure CEO Brett Adcock immediately stated, this will be “the last time humans win this race.”
Researchers generally believe that robots still face technological bottlenecks—including reliability, safety, cost control, and an inability to cope with unexpected situations. These obstacles mean large-scale replacement remains challenging, and several analysts point out that it will take at least several more years for robots to truly achieve large-scale human replacement.
Meanwhile, the labor market already senses pressure from AI. According to a report by labor consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas released this May, U.S. companies are projected to lay off about 49,135 employees by 2026 due to AI. The wave of job replacement is gradually spreading from the software sector to manufacturing and logistics.
Humanoid Robots Still Struggle in Dynamic Environments
Oliver Obst, Associate Professor of Robotics at the University of New South Wales, Australia, said that even in relatively structured environments, humanoid robots still face challenges in reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovering from accidents. He states:
"The harder the environment is to control, the more complicated robot issues become. The variability and judgment required in most human jobs far exceed what was demonstrated in package sorting."
Obst further pointed out that humanoid robots have not yet achieved higher efficiency or lower error rates than current industrial robot manufacturing methods, making large-scale applications unlikely in the short term. He highlighted two types of substitution: AI software is affecting some information jobs faster, while the challenges facing physical robots are much greater.
Dr. Francisco Cruz Naranjo, Senior Lecturer in Robotics at the University of New South Wales, added that robots’ efficiency advantage compared to humans depends strongly on the specific task and environment. He said:
"In highly dynamic environments, robots still struggle to quickly adapt to changing conditions, while humans clearly have the edge. This is why robots achieve outstanding efficiency in controllable environments like factories, but have not yet widely succeeded in home settings."
Large-Scale Deployment Faces Multiple Structural Barriers
Markus Levin, co-founder of the decentralized data network XYO, pointed out that AI models and automation software have already shown far greater consistency and endurance than humans in repetitive tasks, but robots still need to be charged, maintained, and supervised. He said:
"I think large-scale replacement of humans will take several more years. Reliability, safety, regulation, infrastructure costs, and trust remain the main obstacles to full-scale deployment. The challenge is no longer just enabling machines to act, but ensuring they operate safely and reliably as they take on greater autonomy."
A report from the International Federation of Robotics last September indicated that global demand for factory robots doubled over the past decade, with warehousing and logistics among the fastest-growing application fields. This data shows that industrial robots are steadily penetrating, but mainly in highly structured scenarios.
Naranjo further pointed out that repetitive yet relatively dynamic jobs face the risk of being replaced, but achieving this transition depends on research progress and society’s pace of infrastructure transformation in areas like “spatially adaptable robots.”
Between Benefits and Concerns: The Dual Impact of Robots Reshaping the Labor Market
While warning of risks, researchers also highlight potential benefits of robots entering the labor market on a large scale, including improving work-life balance, alleviating labor shortages, and replacing humans in hazardous jobs.
However, Obst cautions that technological advances may also trigger unpredictable social consequences. "If robots make dangerous work cheaper in terms of labor costs, this may be good, but could also have unforeseen impacts—for example, excluding humans from dangerous military operations may save lives, but might also lower the perceived cost of conflicts."
On the broader economic front, Obst points out that if automation ultimately covers almost all jobs, society will have to rethink the current economic system built around personal wages and employment. "This is an even harder social question to answer."
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