Driven by surging chip demand, South Korea’s exports are expected to increase for the ninth consecutive month.

```

The global artificial intelligence investment boom has driven a sharp increase in semiconductor demand, and as a bellwether of global trade, South Korea's exports in February are expected to record their ninth consecutive month of positive growth, continuing the strong momentum of this round of export expansion.

According to media surveys, the median forecast for South Korea's February export growth compared to the previous year is 24.0%. Although this is lower than January's 33.8% growth rate—which was the highest monthly growth rate since August 2021—it would still be the second fastest year-on-year growth since this cycle of consecutive increases began in June 2025. Data from the first 20 days of this month has preliminarily confirmed this trend, with exports up 23.5% year-on-year and semiconductor exports surging 134.1%.

The Bank of Korea on Thursday raised its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.8% to 2.0%, citing the chip export boom as the main driving factor, and signaled that monetary policy will remain stable for the next six months while keeping interest rates unchanged.

Economists noted that chip prices rose more than expected, and South Korea’s semiconductor inventories remain low, supporting continued strong export performance. However, due to tariff effects, automobile and machinery exports lack momentum, which drags on overall performance. Official trade data is scheduled for release on Sunday, March 1.

AI Boom Drives Strong Semiconductor Exports

The artificial intelligence investment boom is becoming South Korea’s most important incremental engine for exports. Economists have noticed that chip prices have risen more than previously expected and South Korea's semiconductor inventory is still relatively low; together, these two factors are supporting strong semiconductor exports.

Stephen Lee, analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul, stated:

"The likelihood of semiconductor export growth exceeding 100% in the first half of the year is very high."

By export destination, in the first 20 days of the month, exports to China were up 30.8% year-on-year, leading among major trade partners; exports to the U.S. rose 21.9%, and to the EU increased 11.4%.

Although exports remain in rapid expansion, the forecasted growth rate of 24.0% is a clear drop from January. Reuters pointed out that the timing difference caused by this year’s Lunar New Year holiday falling in February (and last year in January) often distorts January and February figures. This February had just 19 actual working days, three fewer than the same period last year, directly affecting export performance. January’s high base of 33.8% also puts some pressure on February’s year-on-year growth rate.

Automobiles and Machinery Under Pressure, Tariff Effects Apparent

In contrast to semiconductors’ strong performance, export momentum in automobiles and machinery is noticeably lacking. Stephen Lee pointed out, these two sectors are suppressed by tariff effects and have "almost no growth momentum."

On trade policy, Korean policymakers said last week that despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision that Trump’s emergency tariffs are illegal introducing new uncertainty, South Korea will advance the trade agreement reached with Washington in November last year.

Trade Surplus Expands, Central Bank Raises Growth Forecast

Reuters surveys also show that imports in February are expected to grow 13.0% compared to the previous year, higher than January’s 11.6%. If realized, it would be the largest monthly growth since September 2022. The median forecast for the trade surplus is $10 billion, clearly larger than last month’s $8.71 billion.

While raising the growth forecast, the Bank of Korea kept interest rates unchanged and hinted that monetary policy will remain stable over the next six months, with an overall stance of cautious observation.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not considered the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should determine whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and at your own risk. ```