Electronics and semiconductor supercycle erupts; MLCC ushers in its "explosive moment"

As a core passive component of electronic circuits, multilayer chip ceramic capacitors (MLCC) are standing at the starting point of a new super cycle.

The latest in-depth report by CITIC Securities points out that MLCC demand, price, and inventory fluctuations are deeply intertwined with the semiconductor and electronics industry cycles. As the super cycle in electronics and semiconductors fully kicks off, the MLCC industry is entering its “breakout moment.”

The accelerated penetration of autonomous driving and artificial intelligence is reshaping MLCC’s growth logic from the demand side. The report shows that the MLCC usage in pure electric vehicles is about six times that of traditional gasoline vehicles, while AI servers use roughly twice as many MLCCs as traditional servers. Meanwhile, the adoption of AI smartphones and AI PCs will respectively push single-device MLCC consumption up by about 20% and 40-60%. With the resonance of diverse demands, the shortage of high-end MLCCs has been established: top leaders like Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have reached over 90% capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2026—the threshold for price increases.

This structural boom is being transmitted upstream to raw materials. The report predicts that driven by new energy and AI industries, demand for high-end MLCC specialized nano-nickel powder will surge from less than 1,000 tons in 2023 to over 6,000 tons in 2030.

Cycle Resonance: MLCC deeply binds with the electronics industry, currently in a super cycle

MLCC is known as the "rice of industry," and its demand remains highly synchronized with the electronics industry cycle.

The report reviews history and identifies four core stages:

In 2007, the birth of the iPhone started the smart phone replacement wave, raising MLCC usage per phone from 20–50 pieces in the function phone era to over 200 pieces.

From 2012 to 2016, during the explosion of smartphones, flagship models surpassed 400 MLCCs per device, supply-demand imbalance led to price surges.

From 2017 to 2020, a saturated smartphone market and overexpansion brought industry adjustments.

From 2021 to present, AI servers and automotive-grade demand have started a new round of structural upward growth.

From a micro perspective, the shortage of high-end MLCCs has been confirmed with multiple data points.

According to Trendforce, average MLCC industry capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2026 will reach 87–88%, and leading players like Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics are above 90%—this value marks the industry's entry into a price increase channel.

In terms of the order shipment ratio (BB Ratio), Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which mainly produce high-end MLCCs, show an obvious “not off-season” phenomenon. As of December 2025, inventory at some manufacturers has dropped below 30 days, clear signals of shortage.

Over longer cycles, Murata’s business data reveal growth fluctuations of roughly 15 years per cycle, corresponding to three rounds of prosperity: the proliferation of consumer electronics in the 1980s, communication equipment upgrades in the 2000s, and smartphone dividends in the 2010s.

The report believes that with the explosion in demand for AI servers and new energy vehicles, a new growth cycle is starting; it predicts a new profitability expansion channel before 2030, and the AI revolution may further amplify this cycle’s amplitude.

Automotive Demand: Usage may exceed one trillion units by 2030, Samsung Electro-Mechanics continues to gain share

Automobiles are called the “collective of MLCC,” and the trends of electrification and intelligence are pushing automotive-grade MLCC demand into an explosive growth channel.

According to Murata’s forecast, traditional gasoline vehicles use about 3,000 MLCCs per car, hybrid vehicles about 12,000, and pure electric vehicles as many as 18,000, with some high-end models reaching 30,000.

The level of autonomous driving is the core structural factor driving demand growth.

Germany's automotive industry predicts that by 2035, ADAS and autonomous driving penetration will rise from 65% in 2025 to 94%, with L3 and above autonomous driving accounting for 24%. In models with L2 and above, the proliferation of high-density computing and power modules has significantly increased MLCC usage per vehicle, with concurrent surging demand for miniaturized (0201, 0402 size), high capacitance, low ESR products.

In terms of market scale, Jiwei Consulting predicts global automotive-grade MLCC usage will rise to about 650 billion units in 2025, and may exceed one trillion units by 2030, with a CAGR over 10%. Over 80% of this will come from new energy vehicles.

Competitively, Murata holds a market share of 44%, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics has been growing since 2022, now at 22%. Thanks to high-quality material supply from Bokai New Materials (120nm, 80nm, 60nm), Samsung’s MLCC share in AI servers globally exceeds 45%, and it continues to expand production in places like the Philippines.

AI-Driven: Server usage doubles, shortage of high-end MLCCs intensifies

The explosive growth in AI computing power demand is reshaping MLCC’s demand structure and value.

For example, in NVIDIA’s GB200 servers, the system motherboard contains as many as 3,000–4,000 MLCCs, doubling compared to general servers; over 60% are above 1μF, 85% are high-temperature resistant, and the motherboard MLCC unit price also doubles.

According to Murata, AI servers in 2027 are expected to double compared to 2025; in 2025, AI servers account for only 1.1% of global unit numbers, but consume 7.5% of capacity, confirming the structural shortage.

From a technical perspective, high computing power GPUs/CPUs demand four major upgrades in MLCC: smaller size with larger capacitance, higher temperature resistance, lower ESR, and lower ESL with higher self-resonant frequency (SRF).

These technical challenges are directly transmitted upstream, requiring finer, more heat-resistant ceramic powders for small size, large capacity needs.

The MLCC market for AI servers is highly concentrated; only Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden can supply high-spec products in volume.

North American cloud service providers like Microsoft, Amazon AWS, Google, and Meta Platforms are continually increasing orders for advanced ASIC and CoWoS packages, pushing Japanese and Korean MLCC manufacturers to shift more high-end capacity to AI applications, further squeezing supply for consumer-grade MLCCs. Suppliers’ bargaining power increases, and high-end MLCC prices have risen 15–35%.

Consumer Electronics: AI phones and AI PCs widely adopted, structural increments expected

The rapid penetration of AI terminals brings structural increases to MLCC demand in consumer electronics.

DIGITIMES predicts global smartphone shipments will reach 1.2554 billion units in 2026. More crucially, the rapid rise in AI phone penetration—2026 global AI phone shipments are expected to approach 600 million units, with a penetration rate of 47.8%.

AI phones use about 1.3 times as many MLCCs per device as regular smartphones, at 1,300–1,500 units. The report expects MLCC usage in AI phones to exceed 1.6 trillion units by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of over 30%.

In AI PCs, Gartner data shows that AI PC penetration will exceed 50% in 2026, becoming the mainstream in the global PC market for the first time. A traditional laptop requires about 1,000 MLCCs, while AI PCs (with NPU and other modules) increase consumption by 40–60%, reaching 1,400–1,600 per unit, with high capacitance MLCCs making up 80%. The report expects global MLCC usage in AI PCs to reach about 400 billion units by 2030, with an annual growth rate over 30%.

Upstream Materials: Powder barriers are high, Chinese companies have global competitiveness

Materials determine device performance, and the MLCC super cycle simultaneously brings upstream raw materials opportunity.

In MLCC cost structure, ceramic powder accounts for 35–45% in high-cap MLCCs, internal and external electrode metals each account for 5–10%. Upstream powder is a major cost component in MLCC manufacturing.

In the field of nano-nickel powder, globally, only a few companies can industrially produce MLCC-grade nickel powder; besides Bokai New Material, others are Japanese firms.

Bokai New Material's mass-produced 80nm grade nickel powder has reached world-class level, with about 50% supplied to Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and revenue from its top five customers accounting for 76%. The company pioneered atmospheric physical vapor condensation (PVD) to mass-produce ultra-fine metal powder and led the drafting of China's first industry standard for nickel powder used in capacitor electrodes.

The report predicts demand for high-end MLCC-specific nano-nickel powder will grow from about 720 tons in 2023 to over 6,329 tons in 2030, with broad growth prospects.

In the field of ceramic powders, Guoci Materials ranks in the top tier globally for MLCC dielectric powder, owning one of only four companies worldwide able to supply barium carbonate powder in bulk.

The company prioritizes high-end AI server and automotive-grade MLCCs; many new products have been introduced to core clients, and its MLCC electronic slurry business is expanding rapidly, successfully developing new types such as high-capacity, automotive, and RF-specialized slurries.

China Substitution: Under Japan-Korea dominance, Chinese companies accelerate their catch-up

The global MLCC industry is highly concentrated: Japan's Murata leads with a 33% share, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is second at 23%, and Japanese and Korean companies like Taiyo Yuden, Kyocera, and TDK together hold most of the global market.

Domestic players such as Fenghua Advanced, Sanhuan Group, Torch Electronics, and Hongyuan Electronics are accelerating their deployments, leading the process of domestic substitution, though a clear gap with Japan-Korea leaders remains.

The China Business Industry Research Institute predicts the global MLCC market will reach $24–26 billion by 2026, with the Chinese market at about 65 billion RMB, making China the largest MLCC market worldwide.

For high-end product localization, Chinese companies’ breakthroughs in materials lead—Bokai New Material has global competitiveness in nano-nickel powder, Guoci Materials is in the global top tier for ceramic powder; in devices, Sanhuan Group and Fenghua Advanced continue to close the gap with Japanese and Korean firms.

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