Eli Lilly has fallen behind? The new generation oral weight-loss drug Foundayo has a sluggish start, while Novo Nordisk overtakes with five times the number of prescriptions.

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The newly launched oral weight-loss drug Foundayo by Eli Lilly saw much fewer prescriptions in its initial period compared to its competitors, causing the market to question whether it can catch up to Novo Nordisk in the oral weight-loss drug sector.

According to RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh, citing IQVIA data, Foundayo received a total of 3,707 prescriptions in its second week on the market, while Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy recorded 18,410 prescriptions in its second week, a significant gap.

After the news was released, Eli Lilly shares plunged 8% in premarket trading, while Novo Nordisk shares rose 4%.

Trung Huynh wrote in a research report, "Although we believe comparisons at such an early stage are of limited significance, this week’s prescription numbers for Foundayo may be interpreted negatively by the market." He also pointed out that factors such as sample distribution plans and telemedicine prescriptions being hard to track make it even more difficult to assess its true market performance within the first two to three months of launch.

Oral Weight-Loss Drugs: The New Battleground, Novo Nordisk May Maintain the Lead

Oral weight-loss drugs are seen by investors as the next frontier in medical weight management, with competition between the two industry giants extending from injectables to the tablet market.

Foundayo received approval from U.S. regulators earlier this month, under a new procedure designed to accelerate the launch of promising drugs. This approval has pressured Novo Nordisk, whose oral version of Wegovy, launched in January this year, has already become a key pillar of its business recovery.

However, Danish bank analysts pointed out in a research report on Friday that, in terms of oral weight-loss drugs, Novo Nordisk may maintain its lead through more competitive products. Although no direct head-to-head trial has been conducted between the two oral drugs, Lilly’s large-scale study showed that Foundayo's weight-loss effect was not as high as that achieved by oral Wegovy in separate studies conducted by Novo Nordisk.

In terms of product characteristics, Foundayo has a certain advantage in convenience—it has fewer usage restrictions, does not need to be taken on an empty stomach, and there is no need to wait thirty minutes after taking the drug before eating or drinking. Notably, Foundayo is an entirely new molecular compound, whereas oral Wegovy uses the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as the injectable version of Wegovy and Ozempic.

Falling Behind in Injectables, Eli Lilly Desperately Needs a Comeback in Orals

In the injectable market, Eli Lilly already has the upper hand. Its injectable weight-loss drug Zepbound showed significantly greater weight-loss efficacy than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy in head-to-head trials, causing Novo Nordisk to lose its early leadership position in injectable weight-loss drugs.

Because of this, the oral drug sector is highly significant for Novo Nordisk—if it can outperform Eli Lilly in the tablet market, it could help the Danish pharma giant make up for losses in the injectable field and reestablish its competitive advantage.

At present, neither Eli Lilly nor Novo Nordisk have commented on Foundayo’s prescription data. Eli Lilly did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment, while Novo Nordisk declined to comment.

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