Eli Lilly's new weight-loss drug achieves over 20% weight reduction, plans to cooperate with the White House to expand insurance coverage.

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Lilly is consolidating its leading position in the weight-loss drug market through both new drug development and policy cooperation.

On November 6, Lilly announced that its experimental weight-loss drug eloralintide helped patients lose 20.1% of their weight in a mid-stage trial and will launch late-stage clinical trials next month.

Meanwhile, according to reports, Lilly and Novo Nordisk are in discussions with the White House over a deal to lower the price of their best-selling weight-loss drugs in exchange for broader insurance coverage. Investors expect the White House agreement to expand coverage of these GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which are priced at over $1,000 per month, under the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid programs.

This move is an important pillar of President Trump's second-term healthcare policy. By bypassing pharmacy benefit managers, the TrumpRx platform aims to reduce costs and improve drug accessibility. Multiple pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and AstraZeneca, have already signed relevant agreements.

Analysts point out that this pricing framework may be more favorable for Lilly. BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman said, Lilly's dominance in the GLP-1 field is deepening, with doctors and patients increasingly favoring its drugs. Potential cooperation with the Trump administration's direct-to-consumer TrumpRx platform could further accelerate Lilly's growth momentum.

A new generation of weight-loss drugs shows strong efficacy

Lilly's experimental drug eloralintide is a novel weight-loss drug that mimics amylin, a pancreatic hormone that slows digestion and suppresses hunger.

In the mid-stage trial, patients receiving the highest 9mg dose lost 20.1% (21.3kg) of their body weight in 48 weeks, compared with 9.5% (10.2kg) for those on the 1mg dose, and just 0.2kg for the placebo group.

The study enrolled 263 overweight adults with at least one obesity-related complication but without type 2 diabetes.

Trial data showed that this once-weekly injectable drug also improved waist circumference, blood pressure, lipid profiles, blood sugar control, and inflammation markers.

The most common side effects were mild to moderate gastrointestinal symptoms and fatigue, which were more frequent in the high-dose group, while patients in the titrated dose group experienced fewer side effects.

Kenneth Custer, President of Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health division, said, the data show that eloralintide has strong efficacy and better tolerability, and can serve as an alternative to incretin therapies.

This drug is currently also undergoing mid-stage trials both as monotherapy and in combination with Lilly's best-selling GLP-1 drug tirzepatide (brand name Zepbound).

Pricing deals may strengthen Lilly’s market advantage

Currently, only Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound are available on the market as high-efficiency GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, mainly sold as weekly injections in the U.S.

Both drugs are priced at over $1,000 per month, but both offer a $499 per month price to out-of-pocket buyers. Novo Nordisk was first to market, but Lilly’s Zepbound is rapidly catching up.

Deutsche Bank analysts believe that this deal could serve as a catalyst for Lilly’s growth.

The bank projects that a $150 monthly price cap could provide drug access to as many as 15 million Americans, mainly covering about 20% of obese adults with injection phobia, and Lilly’s soon-to-be-launched oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron may capture this market segment.

Deutsche Bank analysts say the lower cost of Orforglipron may provide the company with room to maneuver in the short term, quickly reaching or surpassing Zepbound’s current 2.7 million U.S. patient population. This analysis is based on the assumption that expanded government coverage would offset any net price reductions.

Race for oral formulations accelerates

Lilly and Novo Nordisk are both competing to bring oral versions of their blockbuster GLP-1 drugs to market.

Novo Nordisk's once-daily oral Wegovy is under review by the U.S. FDA, with a regulatory decision expected by the end of 2025, while Lilly's Orforglipron plans to submit for approval before the end of 2025 and may launch in 2026.

First-generation market-leading weight-loss drugs mainly targeted gut hormone GLP-1, but drugmakers are now seeking to target other hormones or develop next-generation drugs that help maintain muscle mass during fat loss. Pharmaceutical giants like Roche and AbbVie have signed deals to acquire rights to develop experimental amylin drugs.

Analysts point out that the current GLP-1 weight-loss drug market landscape is being reshaped. Drug pricing has always been a core issue in Trump's second-term agenda, and the launch of direct-to-consumer channels marks a major shift in the U.S. healthcare distribution model.

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